Pronostici / Coppa del Mondo 2026 / Francia vs Spagna

Francia vs Spagna

Group I
Francia Francia
Jul 14, 2026 - 19:00
0 1.21
2 1.49
Spagna Spagna

Betting Signal

Il modello dice
Spagna 42.2%
Il mercato dice
Francia 30.8%
Differenza
11.4 pp
Stato
Use caution — signals are mixed

OddsGPT Interpretation

The betting market strongly prefers Francia (30.8%).

This creates a conflict: Model → Spagna, Market → Francia, Recent sharp money → recent line movement.

Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited.

Confronto Modello vs Mercato

Francia
29.2% vs 37.37%
-8.2 pp
Draw
28.7% vs 31.87%
-3.2 pp
Spagna
42.2% vs 30.76%
+11.4 pp

Divario Maggiore

Spagna +11.4 pp

Il modello è sostanzialmente più ottimista su Spagna rispetto al mercato.

The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.
Previsione AI
Francia 29.2%
Draw 28.7%
Spagna 42.2%

Generato da simulazione Poisson regolata con Elo. Non sono quote dei bookmaker.

Mostra Dati Completi del Modello
Probabilità della linea gol Poisson
Linea Over Under
0.5 91.7% 8.3%
1.5 76.7% 23.3%
2.5 50.6% 49.4%
3.5 28.6% 71.4%
4.5 13.7% 86.3%
Aspettative della partita
Over 2.5 gol
50.6%
Balanced
Under 2.5 gol
49.4%
Entrambe le squadre segnano
55.9%
Balanced
Probabile clean sheet
44.1%

Poisson total-goals expectation Σλ = 2.7 (Over 2.5 50.6% · Under 2.5 49.4%).

BTTS Yes 55.9% · No 44.1% — neither side dominates the BTTS split.

Punteggi più probabili
Punteggio Probabilità
1-1 13.7%
1-2 9.0%
0-1 8.4%
0-0 8.3%
0-2 7.5%

Top Poisson cell: 1-1 at 13.7% (draw-type scoreline; exact-score variance remains high).

FAQ
How are win probabilities calculated?

Home and away expected goals (λ) are derived from Elo ratings and tournament parameters, then fed into a Dixon–Coles Poisson grid to produce 1X2, goal-line, and scoreline probabilities shown on this page.

Is this page betting advice?

No. OddsGPT displays model probabilities for informational purposes only. We do not recommend wagers or stake sizes on this page.

What does xG / λ mean here?

λ is the model’s pre-match expected goals for each team before variance is simulated. It is an input to the Poisson matrix, not a post-match expected-goals stat.

Why are exact score probabilities low?

Even the most likely scoreline typically sits below 15% because many score combinations share the probability mass — that is normal for Poisson models.

Fase della partita: Terminato

Ciclo Decisionale

Fase attuale: In attesa del CLV

  1. Previsione Generata
  2. Mercato Confrontato
    Ingresso In Attesa
  3. Validazione Superata
  4. Chiusura registrata
    Chiusura 3.17
  5. CLV valutato
    CLV In Attesa In attesa del calcolo del CLV
Torna alle previsioni di oggi
Group I partite