Pronostici / Coppa del Mondo 2026 / Canada vs Marocco

Canada vs Marocco

Group B
Canada Canada
Jul 04, 2026 - 17:00
0 1.29
3 1.41
Marocco Marocco

Betting Signal

Il modello dice
Marocco 38.4%
Il mercato dice
Marocco 54.6%
Differenza
16.4 pp
Stato
Use caution — signals are mixed

OddsGPT Interpretation

The betting market strongly prefers Marocco (54.6%).

Marocco — market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (-16.2 pp).

Confronto Modello vs Mercato

Canada
32.7% vs 16.28%
+16.4 pp
Draw
28.9% vs 29.16%
-0.3 pp
Marocco
38.4% vs 54.57%
-16.2 pp

Divario Maggiore

Canada +16.4 pp

Il modello è sostanzialmente più ottimista su Canada rispetto al mercato.

The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

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Previsione AI
Canada 32.7%
Draw 28.9%
Marocco 38.4%

Generato da simulazione Poisson regolata con Elo. Non sono quote dei bookmaker.

Mostra Dati Completi del Modello
Probabilità della linea gol Poisson
Linea Over Under
0.5 91.7% 8.3%
1.5 76.7% 23.3%
2.5 50.6% 49.4%
3.5 28.6% 71.4%
4.5 13.7% 86.3%
Aspettative della partita
Over 2.5 gol
50.6%
Balanced
Under 2.5 gol
49.4%
Entrambe le squadre segnano
56.4%
Balanced
Probabile clean sheet
43.6%

Poisson total-goals expectation Σλ = 2.7 (Over 2.5 50.6% · Under 2.5 49.4%).

BTTS Yes 56.4% · No 43.6% — neither side dominates the BTTS split.

Punteggi più probabili
Punteggio Probabilità
1-1 13.8%
1-2 8.6%
0-0 8.3%
0-1 7.9%
2-1 7.9%

Top Poisson cell: 1-1 at 13.8% (draw-type scoreline; exact-score variance remains high).

FAQ
How are win probabilities calculated?

Home and away expected goals (λ) are derived from Elo ratings and tournament parameters, then fed into a Dixon–Coles Poisson grid to produce 1X2, goal-line, and scoreline probabilities shown on this page.

Is this page betting advice?

No. OddsGPT displays model probabilities for informational purposes only. We do not recommend wagers or stake sizes on this page.

What does xG / λ mean here?

λ is the model’s pre-match expected goals for each team before variance is simulated. It is an input to the Poisson matrix, not a post-match expected-goals stat.

Why are exact score probabilities low?

Even the most likely scoreline typically sits below 15% because many score combinations share the probability mass — that is normal for Poisson models.

Fase della partita: Terminato

Ciclo Decisionale

Fase attuale: In attesa del CLV

  1. Previsione Generata
  2. Mercato Confrontato
    Ingresso In Attesa
  3. Validazione Superata
  4. Chiusura registrata
    Chiusura 6.0
  5. CLV valutato
    CLV In Attesa In attesa del calcolo del CLV
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