Pronostici / Calcio / Inghilterra. League Two / Newport County vs Grimsby Town

Audit previsione: Newport County vs Grimsby Town Previsione, Quote & Consigli di Scommessa AI

Newport County Newport County
Sep 26, 2026 - 14:00
2 1.51
1 1.79
xG Accuracy: 70%
Grimsby Town Grimsby Town

The model missed the final outcome (Newport County win 2–1).

The model had projected Grimsby Town at 43.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Valutazione della previsione C

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

  • Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 gol) ✔ Corretto
  • Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
  • 1X2 Grimsby Town Newport County ✖ Errato
  • Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 2-1 ✔ Corretto

Modello vs Mercato di Chiusura

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Newport County considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Maggior divario di probabilità: Newport County +8.2 pp

Esito Modello Mercato di Chiusura Differenza Segnale
Newport County 31.4% 23.2% +8.2 pp Model Higher
Draw 25.4% 26.2% -0.8 pp Aligned
Grimsby Town 43.2% 50.7% -7.5 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Newport County's win probability at 31.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 23.2%, a difference of 8.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

Dopo il tempo regolamentare, il risultato è stato Newport County win 2–1.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Newport County.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.30) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Grimsby Town; match finished Newport County

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Grimsby Town by 8.2 percentage points (35.0% vs model 43.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Cronologia delle Previsioni

Come questa previsione è passata dalla previsione alla revisione a tempo pieno.

  1. Sep 26, 2026 · 13:58 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Newport County 31.5% · Draw 25.4% · Grimsby Town 43.1%
    • xG · Newport County 1.51 — Grimsby Town 1.79
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 13:36 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Newport County 4.11 · Draw 3.64 · Grimsby Town 1.88
    • Implied 1X2 · Newport County 23.2% · Draw 26.2% · Grimsby Town 50.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 26, 2026 · 13:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Newport County 4.11 · Draw 3.64 · Grimsby Town 1.88
    • Implied 1X2 · Newport County 23.2% · Draw 26.2% · Grimsby Town 50.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Newport County win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Istante Storico

Congelato al calcio d'inizio — l'output del modello come si presentava prima dell'inizio della partita.

Verdetto Storico: Observe
Decisione Storica No Primary Bet
Esito Missed
Metriche pre-partita (contesto storico)
Affidabilità della previsione 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidenza ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 58/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:41 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10096337

Closing Odds 4.11
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Newport County win · Newport County 2–1 Grimsby Town
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

FAQ sulla revisione

Quanto era accurata la previsione?
Questa pagina valuta i mercati direzionali (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) rispetto al risultato finale. Il grado di previsione riflette quanti di questi mercati monitorati corrispondono alla realtà.
Cosa misura la precisione xG?
La precisione xG confronta il profilo di gol attesi pre-partita del modello con il punteggio effettivo — non se ogni mercato ha colpito. Una forte revisione direzionale può coesistere con un punteggio di precisione xG moderato.
Perché il punteggio esatto non è stato previsto?
I risultati di punteggio esatto sono code a bassa probabilità anche quando il modello interpreta bene il profilo della partita. Evidenziamo i principali intervalli di punteggio per contesto; mancare la linea esatta non invalida una revisione direzionale.
Questo migliora il record dell'AI?
Ogni partita terminata viene registrata nel nostro sistema di validazione. I tassi di successo aggregati e gli studi CLV vengono pubblicati separatamente — questa pagina è il registro di audit per partita.

Le previsioni sono solo a scopo informativo. Gioca sempre responsabilmente e nei limiti delle tue possibilità. Le prestazioni passate non garantiscono risultati futuri.

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: League Two
  • Fixture: Newport County vs Grimsby Town
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.5% · Draw 25.4% · Away 43.1%
  • xG (showing): Newport County 1.51 — Grimsby Town 1.79 (total xG ≈ 3.3)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 64.1% · Implied: 51.9% · Probability edge: +12.2 pts · Est. EV: +19.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 66.2% · No 33.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.0%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: No Primary Bet

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Previsioni Correlate

Vedi le Prossime League Two Partite Traccia Newport County Previsione Prossima Partita Traccia Grimsby Town Previsione Prossima Partita Visualizza le Previsioni di Calcio di Oggi

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League Two League Two — Classifiche
# SQUADRA PG V P S PT
1 Barnet 7 4 3 0 15
2 Walsall 7 3 4 0 13
3 Grimsby Town 7 3 4 0 13
4 Gillingham 7 3 3 1 12
5 Cheltenham Town 7 3 3 1 12
6 Bristol Rovers 7 4 0 3 12
7 York City 7 3 2 2 11
8 Chesterfield 7 3 2 2 11
9 Crewe Alexandra 7 2 5 0 11
10 Tranmere Rovers 7 2 4 1 10
11 Fleetwood Town 7 2 4 1 10
12 Salford City 7 3 1 3 10
13 Swindon Town 7 3 1 3 10
14 Rotherham United 7 2 3 2 9
15 Colchester United 7 2 3 2 9
16 Oldham Athletic 7 2 1 4 7
17 Rochdale 7 2 1 4 7
18 Shrewsbury Town 7 2 1 4 7
19 Newport County 7 1 3 3 6
20 Exeter City 7 1 3 3 6
21 Accrington Stanley 7 1 3 3 6
22 Northampton Town 7 1 3 3 6
23 Port Vale 7 1 2 4 5
24 Crawley Town 7 1 1 5 4
# SQUADRA PG GS GC +/- PT
1 Barnet 7 17 10 +7 15
2 Cheltenham Town 7 14 11 +3 12
3 York City 7 13 10 +3 11
4 Bristol Rovers 7 12 11 +1 12
5 Grimsby Town 7 11 6 +5 13
6 Gillingham 7 11 6 +5 12
7 Walsall 7 10 4 +6 13
8 Chesterfield 7 10 8 +2 11
9 Rotherham United 7 10 10 0 9
10 Newport County 7 10 11 -1 6
11 Accrington Stanley 7 10 13 -3 6
12 Tranmere Rovers 7 9 7 +2 10
13 Fleetwood Town 7 8 7 +1 10
14 Salford City 7 8 9 -1 10
15 Oldham Athletic 7 8 9 -1 7
16 Colchester United 7 8 10 -2 9
17 Swindon Town 7 8 11 -3 10
18 Crewe Alexandra 7 7 5 +2 11
19 Rochdale 7 7 10 -3 7
20 Crawley Town 7 6 13 -7 4
21 Shrewsbury Town 7 5 11 -6 7
22 Exeter City 7 4 5 -1 6
23 Northampton Town 7 3 6 -3 6
24 Port Vale 7 3 9 -6 5
# SQUADRA PG xG xGC +/- PT
1 Accrington Stanley 7 3.0 0.5 +2.5 6
2 Walsall 7 3.5 1.8 +1.7 13
3 Rotherham United 7 2.2 0.7 +1.5 9
4 Northampton Town 7 1.6 0.3 +1.3 6
5 Barnet 7 2.8 1.8 +1.0 15
6 Shrewsbury Town 7 2.1 1.2 +0.9 7
7 Crewe Alexandra 7 1.7 0.8 +0.9 11
8 Grimsby Town 7 1.9 1.1 +0.8 13
9 Oldham Athletic 7 1.5 0.9 +0.6 7
10 Bristol Rovers 7 2.0 1.6 +0.4 12
11 Fleetwood Town 7 1.9 1.5 +0.4 10
12 York City 7 1.6 2.0 -0.4 11
13 Chesterfield 7 1.5 1.9 -0.4 11
14 Port Vale 7 0.9 1.5 -0.6 5
15 Exeter City 7 1.1 1.9 -0.8 6
16 Tranmere Rovers 7 1.2 2.1 -0.9 10
17 Crawley Town 7 0.8 1.7 -0.9 4
18 Salford City 7 1.8 2.8 -1.0 10
19 Swindon Town 7 0.3 1.6 -1.3 10
20 Cheltenham Town 7 0.7 2.2 -1.5 12
21 Gillingham 7 1.8 3.5 -1.7 12
22 Colchester United 7 0.5 3.0 -2.5 9
23 Rochdale 7 — — — 7
24 Newport County 7 — — — 6
League Two Inghilterra. League Two Pronostici