Pronostici / Calcio / Stati Uniti. Major League Soccer / Seattle Sounders vs Portland Timbers

Audit previsione: Seattle Sounders vs Portland Timbers Previsione, Quote & Consigli di Scommessa AI

Seattle Sounders Seattle Sounders
Jul 17, 2026 - 02:30
1 3.36
5 1.10
xG Accuracy: 18%
Portland Timbers Portland Timbers

The model missed the final outcome (Portland Timbers win 1–5).

The model had projected Seattle Sounders at 75.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Mercati tracciati vs risultato finale

Valutazione della previsione C

Ogni riga confronta la tendenza del modello pre-partita con il risultato finale.

  • Mercato Previsione Risultato Esito
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 gol) ✔ Corretto
  • Entrambe le Squadre Segnano Entrambe le squadre segnano (BTTS) Sì Sì ✔ Corretto
  • 1X2 Seattle Sounders Portland Timbers ✖ Errato
  • Approfondimenti sul Risultato Esatto 3-1, 3-0, 2-1, 4-1, 2-0 1-5 ✖ Errato

Modello vs Mercato di Chiusura

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Seattle Sounders considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Maggior divario di probabilità: Seattle Sounders +10.6 pp

Esito Modello Mercato di Chiusura Differenza Segnale
Seattle Sounders 75.7% 65.1% +10.6 pp Model Edge
Draw 14.3% 18.6% -4.2 pp Aligned
Portland Timbers 10.0% 16.3% -6.3 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Seattle Sounders's win probability at 75.7%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 65.1%, a difference of 10.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

Dopo il tempo regolamentare, il risultato è stato Portland Timbers win 1–5.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Seattle Sounders.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 4.46) — 6 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Seattle Sounders; match finished Portland Timbers
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Seattle Sounders by 10.6 percentage points (65.2% vs model 75.7%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Cronologia delle Previsioni

Come questa previsione è passata dalla previsione alla revisione a tempo pieno.

  1. Jul 17, 2026 · 19:12 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Seattle Sounders 75.7% · Draw 14.3% · Portland Timbers 10.0%
    • xG · Seattle Sounders 3.36 — Portland Timbers 1.10
  2. Jul 17, 2026 · 02:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Seattle Sounders 1.48 · Draw 5.19 · Portland Timbers 5.92
    • Implied 1X2 · Seattle Sounders 65.1% · Draw 18.6% · Portland Timbers 16.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 17, 2026 · 02:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Seattle Sounders 1.48 · Draw 5.19 · Portland Timbers 5.92
    • Implied 1X2 · Seattle Sounders 65.1% · Draw 18.6% · Portland Timbers 16.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 17, 2026 · 02:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Portland Timbers win · 1–5
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Istante Storico

Congelato al calcio d'inizio — l'output del modello come si presentava prima dell'inizio della partita.

Verdetto Storico: Monitor
Decisione Storica Monitor
Esito Missed
Metriche pre-partita (contesto storico)
Affidabilità della previsione 46/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (149%+)
Evidenza ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 47/100
Betting Confidence 36/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 15:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1471764

Closing Odds 1.48
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Portland Timbers win · Seattle Sounders 1–5 Portland Timbers
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

FAQ sulla revisione

Quanto era accurata la previsione?
Questa pagina valuta i mercati direzionali (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) rispetto al risultato finale. Il grado di previsione riflette quanti di questi mercati monitorati corrispondono alla realtà.
Cosa misura la precisione xG?
La precisione xG confronta il profilo di gol attesi pre-partita del modello con il punteggio effettivo — non se ogni mercato ha colpito. Una forte revisione direzionale può coesistere con un punteggio di precisione xG moderato.
Perché il punteggio esatto non è stato previsto?
I risultati di punteggio esatto sono code a bassa probabilità anche quando il modello interpreta bene il profilo della partita. Evidenziamo i principali intervalli di punteggio per contesto; mancare la linea esatta non invalida una revisione direzionale.
Questo migliora il record dell'AI?
Ogni partita terminata viene registrata nel nostro sistema di validazione. I tassi di successo aggregati e gli studi CLV vengono pubblicati separatamente — questa pagina è il registro di audit per partita.

Le previsioni sono solo a scopo informativo. Gioca sempre responsabilmente e nei limiti delle tue possibilità. Le prestazioni passate non garantiscono risultati futuri.

Briefing AI della partita

Riepilogo AI della partita

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Major League Soccer
  • Fixture: Seattle Sounders vs Portland Timbers
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-17 02:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Seattle Sounders 3.36 — Portland Timbers 1.1 (total xG ≈ 4.46)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Raccomandazione Storica

Decisione Storica: Monitor

Esito: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Fattori di Rischio Considerati Prima del Calcio d'Inizio

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Ultimo aggiornamento

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

Previsioni Correlate

Vedi le Prossime Major League Soccer Partite Traccia Seattle Sounders Previsione Prossima Partita Traccia Portland Timbers Previsione Prossima Partita Visualizza le Previsioni di Calcio di Oggi

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Major League Soccer Major League Soccer — Classifiche
# SQUADRA PG V P S PT
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 26 15 5 6 50
2 FC Dallas 27 13 8 6 47
3 San Jose Earthquakes 27 13 6 8 45
4 Houston Dynamo 27 13 5 9 44
5 St. Louis City 26 12 8 6 44
6 Los Angeles FC 28 11 8 9 41
7 Colorado Rapids 27 11 3 13 36
8 Los Angeles Galaxy 28 9 9 10 36
9 Seattle Sounders 26 9 8 9 35
10 Portland Timbers 27 9 5 13 32
11 Real Salt Lake 27 9 5 13 32
12 San Diego 27 8 8 11 32
13 Austin FC 27 7 10 10 31
14 Minnesota United FC 27 7 8 12 29
15 Sporting Kansas City 26 6 3 17 21
# SQUADRA PG GS GC +/- PT
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 26 59 26 +33 50
2 FC Dallas 27 50 42 +8 47
3 San Jose Earthquakes 27 49 39 +10 45
4 Portland Timbers 27 48 51 -3 32
5 San Diego 27 47 47 0 32
6 St. Louis City 26 45 36 +9 44
7 Los Angeles FC 28 43 30 +13 41
8 Real Salt Lake 27 40 44 -4 32
9 Minnesota United FC 27 40 49 -9 29
10 Colorado Rapids 27 38 38 0 36
11 Los Angeles Galaxy 28 37 44 -7 36
12 Austin FC 27 35 47 -12 31
13 Houston Dynamo 27 34 32 +2 44
14 Seattle Sounders 26 33 34 -1 35
15 Sporting Kansas City 26 31 63 -32 21
# SQUADRA PG xG xGC +/- PT
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 26 15.4 7.0 +8.4 50
2 St. Louis City 26 16.2 8.0 +8.2 44
3 Colorado Rapids 27 12.7 7.5 +5.2 36
4 Portland Timbers 27 19.0 14.2 +4.8 32
5 Minnesota United FC 27 17.8 13.3 +4.5 29
6 San Diego 27 14.7 12.0 +2.7 32
7 San Jose Earthquakes 27 13.6 13.1 +0.5 45
8 Houston Dynamo 27 11.6 11.1 +0.5 44
9 Los Angeles FC 28 14.5 15.8 -1.3 41
10 FC Dallas 27 10.4 11.7 -1.3 47
11 Austin FC 27 9.5 13.7 -4.2 31
12 Seattle Sounders 26 10.6 15.4 -4.8 35
13 Real Salt Lake 27 14.2 19.2 -5.0 32
14 Sporting Kansas City 26 9.8 18.2 -8.4 21
15 Los Angeles Galaxy 28 11.2 21.1 -9.9 36
Major League Soccer Stati Uniti. Major League Soccer Pronostici