Vorhersagen / WM 2026 / Spanien vs Belgien

Spanien vs Belgien

Group H
Spanien Spanien
Jul 10, 2026 - 19:00
2 1.83
1 0.87
Belgien Belgien

Betting Signal

Model sagt
Spanien 58.7%
Markt sagt
Spanien 59.7%
Unterschied
1.0 pp
Status
Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately

OddsGPT Interpretation

The betting market strongly prefers Spanien (59.7%).

Spanien — market direction supports the model lean.

Markt vs. Modell

Spanien
58.7% vs 59.68%
-1.0 pp
Draw
25.3% vs 24.63%
+0.7 pp
Belgien
16.0% vs 15.69%
+0.3 pp

Größte Lücke

Spanien -1.0 pp

Der Markt ist bei Spanien wesentlich optimistischer als beim Modell.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

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KI-Prognose
Spanien 58.7%
Draw 25.3%
Belgien 16.0%

Erstellt aus einer Elo-bereinigten Poisson-Simulation. Keine Buchmacherquoten.

Vollständige Modelldaten anzeigen
Poisson-Torlinien-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Linie Über Unter
0.5 91.9% 8.1%
1.5 76.5% 23.5%
2.5 50.6% 49.4%
3.5 28.6% 71.4%
4.5 13.7% 86.3%
Spielerwartungen
Über 2,5 Tore
50.6%
Balanced
Unter 2,5 Tore
49.4%
Beide treffen
50.1%
Balanced
Zu-Null wahrscheinlich
49.9%

Poisson total-goals expectation Σλ = 2.7 (Over 2.5 50.6% · Under 2.5 49.4%).

BTTS Yes 50.1% · No 49.9% — neither side dominates the BTTS split.

Wahrscheinlichste Ergebnisse
Ergebnis Wahrscheinlichkeit
1-1 12.1%
2-0 11.3%
1-0 10.9%
2-1 9.8%
0-0 8.1%

Top Poisson cell: 1-1 at 12.1% (draw-type scoreline; exact-score variance remains high).

FAQ
How are win probabilities calculated?

Home and away expected goals (λ) are derived from Elo ratings and tournament parameters, then fed into a Dixon–Coles Poisson grid to produce 1X2, goal-line, and scoreline probabilities shown on this page.

Is this page betting advice?

No. OddsGPT displays model probabilities for informational purposes only. We do not recommend wagers or stake sizes on this page.

What does xG / λ mean here?

λ is the model’s pre-match expected goals for each team before variance is simulated. It is an input to the Poisson matrix, not a post-match expected-goals stat.

Why are exact score probabilities low?

Even the most likely scoreline typically sits below 15% because many score combinations share the probability mass — that is normal for Poisson models.

Spielphase: Finished

Entscheidungslebenszyklus

Aktuelle Stufe: Awaiting CLV

  1. Prognose erstellt
  2. Markt verglichen
    Einstieg Ausstehend
  3. Validierung bestanden
  4. Closing erfasst
    Closing 1.63
  5. CLV bewertet
    CLV Ausstehend Awaiting CLV calculation
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