Vorhersagen / WM 2026 / Uruguay vs Kap Verde

Uruguay vs Kap Verde

Group H
Uruguay Uruguay
Jun 21, 2026 - 22:00
2 1.90
2 0.80
Kap Verde Kap Verde

Betting Signal

Model sagt
Uruguay 61.8%
Markt sagt
Uruguay 67.8%
Unterschied
6.0 pp
Status
Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately

OddsGPT Interpretation

The betting market strongly prefers Uruguay (67.8%).

Uruguay — market direction supports the model lean.

Markt vs. Modell

Uruguay
61.8% vs 67.8%
-6.0 pp
Draw
24.3% vs 22.19%
+2.1 pp
Kap Verde
13.9% vs 10.01%
+3.9 pp

Größte Lücke

Uruguay -6.0 pp

Der Markt ist bei Uruguay wesentlich optimistischer als beim Modell.

Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

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KI-Prognose
Uruguay 61.8%
Draw 24.3%
Kap Verde 13.9%

Erstellt aus einer Elo-bereinigten Poisson-Simulation. Keine Buchmacherquoten.

Vollständige Modelldaten anzeigen
Poisson-Torlinien-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Linie Über Unter
0.5 91.9% 8.1%
1.5 76.5% 23.5%
2.5 50.6% 49.4%
3.5 28.6% 71.4%
4.5 13.7% 86.3%
Spielerwartungen
Über 2,5 Tore
50.6%
Balanced
Unter 2,5 Tore
49.4%
Beide treffen
48.3%
Balanced
Zu-Null wahrscheinlich
51.7%

Poisson total-goals expectation Σλ = 2.7 (Over 2.5 50.6% · Under 2.5 49.4%).

BTTS Yes 48.3% · No 51.7% — neither side dominates the BTTS split.

Wahrscheinlichste Ergebnisse
Ergebnis Wahrscheinlichkeit
2-0 12.1%
1-1 11.6%
1-0 11.4%
2-1 9.7%
0-0 8.1%

Top Poisson cell: 2-0 at 12.1% (exact-score variance remains high).

FAQ
How are win probabilities calculated?

Home and away expected goals (λ) are derived from Elo ratings and tournament parameters, then fed into a Dixon–Coles Poisson grid to produce 1X2, goal-line, and scoreline probabilities shown on this page.

Is this page betting advice?

No. OddsGPT displays model probabilities for informational purposes only. We do not recommend wagers or stake sizes on this page.

What does xG / λ mean here?

λ is the model’s pre-match expected goals for each team before variance is simulated. It is an input to the Poisson matrix, not a post-match expected-goals stat.

Why are exact score probabilities low?

Even the most likely scoreline typically sits below 15% because many score combinations share the probability mass — that is normal for Poisson models.

Spielphase: Finished

Entscheidungslebenszyklus

Aktuelle Stufe: Awaiting CLV

  1. Prognose erstellt
  2. Markt verglichen
    Einstieg Ausstehend
  3. Validierung bestanden
  4. Closing erfasst
    Closing 1.44
  5. CLV bewertet
    CLV Ausstehend Awaiting CLV calculation
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