Vorhersagen / WM 2026 / Tunesien vs Niederlande

Tunesien vs Niederlande

Group F
Tunesien Tunesien
Jun 25, 2026 - 23:00
1 0.83
3 1.87
Niederlande Niederlande

Betting Signal

Model sagt
Niederlande 60.6%
Markt sagt
Niederlande 87.7%
Unterschied
27.1 pp
Status
Use caution — signals are mixed

OddsGPT Interpretation

The betting market strongly prefers Niederlande (87.7%).

Niederlande — market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (-27.1 pp).

Markt vs. Modell

Tunesien
14.7% vs 3.42%
+11.3 pp
Draw
24.7% vs 8.85%
+15.8 pp
Niederlande
60.6% vs 87.73%
-27.1 pp

Größte Lücke

Niederlande -27.1 pp

Der Markt ist bei Niederlande wesentlich optimistischer als beim Modell.

The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

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KI-Prognose
Tunesien 14.7%
Draw 24.7%
Niederlande 60.6%

Erstellt aus einer Elo-bereinigten Poisson-Simulation. Keine Buchmacherquoten.

Vollständige Modelldaten anzeigen
Poisson-Torlinien-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Linie Über Unter
0.5 91.9% 8.1%
1.5 76.5% 23.5%
2.5 50.6% 49.4%
3.5 28.6% 71.4%
4.5 13.7% 86.3%
Spielerwartungen
Über 2,5 Tore
50.6%
Balanced
Unter 2,5 Tore
49.4%
Beide treffen
49.1%
Balanced
Zu-Null wahrscheinlich
50.9%

Poisson total-goals expectation Σλ = 2.7 (Over 2.5 50.6% · Under 2.5 49.4%).

BTTS Yes 49.1% · No 50.9% — neither side dominates the BTTS split.

Wahrscheinlichste Ergebnisse
Ergebnis Wahrscheinlichkeit
0-2 11.8%
1-1 11.8%
0-1 11.2%
1-2 9.8%
0-0 8.1%

Top Poisson cell: 0-2 at 11.8% (exact-score variance remains high).

FAQ
How are win probabilities calculated?

Home and away expected goals (λ) are derived from Elo ratings and tournament parameters, then fed into a Dixon–Coles Poisson grid to produce 1X2, goal-line, and scoreline probabilities shown on this page.

Is this page betting advice?

No. OddsGPT displays model probabilities for informational purposes only. We do not recommend wagers or stake sizes on this page.

What does xG / λ mean here?

λ is the model’s pre-match expected goals for each team before variance is simulated. It is an input to the Poisson matrix, not a post-match expected-goals stat.

Why are exact score probabilities low?

Even the most likely scoreline typically sits below 15% because many score combinations share the probability mass — that is normal for Poisson models.

Spielphase: Finished

Entscheidungslebenszyklus

Aktuelle Stufe: Awaiting CLV

  1. Prognose erstellt
  2. Markt verglichen
    Einstieg Ausstehend
  3. Validierung bestanden
  4. Closing erfasst
    Closing 1.11
  5. CLV bewertet
    CLV Ausstehend Awaiting CLV calculation
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