Predictions / Football / USA. MLS Next Pro / Los Angeles II vs Tacoma Defiance

Prediction Audit: Los Angeles II vs Tacoma Defiance Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Los Angeles II Los Angeles II
Aug 17, 2026 - 02:00
4 1.28
3 1.32
xG Accuracy: 30%
Tacoma Defiance Tacoma Defiance

The model missed the final outcome (Los Angeles II win 4–3).

The model had projected Tacoma Defiance at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Tacoma Defiance Los Angeles II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Los Angeles II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Los Angeles II -15.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Los Angeles II 34.2% 49.3% -15.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 23.6% +6.0 pp Model Higher
Tacoma Defiance 36.1% 27.1% +9.0 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Los Angeles II's win probability at 49.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 15.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Los Angeles II win 4–3.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Los Angeles II than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Tacoma Defiance; match finished Los Angeles II

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Tacoma Defiance by 15.0 percentage points (51.1% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 17, 2026 · 01:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Los Angeles II 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Tacoma Defiance 36.1%
    • xG · Los Angeles II 1.28 — Tacoma Defiance 1.32
  2. Aug 17, 2026 · 01:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Los Angeles II 1.88 · Draw 3.92 · Tacoma Defiance 3.42
    • Implied 1X2 · Los Angeles II 49.3% · Draw 23.6% · Tacoma Defiance 27.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 17, 2026 · 01:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Los Angeles II 1.88 · Draw 3.92 · Tacoma Defiance 3.42
    • Implied 1X2 · Los Angeles II 49.3% · Draw 23.6% · Tacoma Defiance 27.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 17, 2026 · 02:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Los Angeles II win · 4–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 8/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 02:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3616366

Closing Odds 1.88
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Los Angeles II win · Los Angeles II 4–3 Tacoma Defiance
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: MLS Next Pro
  • Fixture: Los Angeles II vs Tacoma Defiance
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-17 02:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Los Angeles II 1.28 — Tacoma Defiance 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.6%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

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MLS Next Pro MLS Next Pro — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Columbus Crew II 28 17 0 11 48
1 Crown Legacy 26 19 0 7 54
1 Austin II 26 19 0 7 59
2 New England II 28 16 0 12 48
2 Chattanooga 26 17 0 9 50
2 Portland Timbers II 26 18 0 8 54
3 New York City II 28 16 0 12 47
3 Atlanta United II 26 14 0 12 45
3 Houston Dynamo FC II 26 18 0 8 51
4 Connecticut FC 28 16 0 12 46
4 LA Galaxy II 26 17 0 9 50
5 New York RB II 28 15 0 13 46
5 St. Louis City II 26 14 0 12 43
6 Bethlehem Steel 28 14 0 14 43
6 Los Angeles II 26 13 0 13 42
7 Toronto II 28 13 0 15 39
7 Tacoma Defiance 26 13 0 13 39
8 FC Cincinnati II 28 7 0 21 20
8 North Texas 26 13 0 13 38
9 Orlando City II 26 14 0 12 41
9 Minnesota United II 25 12 0 13 37
10 San Jose Earthquakes II 26 12 0 14 36
11 Real Monarchs 25 11 0 14 29
12 Chicago Fire II 26 13 0 13 39
12 Whitecaps II 26 10 0 16 27
13 Huntsville City 26 12 0 14 38
13 Swope Park Rangers 26 6 0 20 20
14 Carolina Core 26 9 0 17 28
14 Colorado Rapids II 26 5 0 21 18
16 Fort Lauderdale CF 26 4 0 22 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Crown Legacy 26 63 36 +27 54
2 Connecticut FC 28 59 52 +7 46
3 New York RB II 28 58 48 +10 46
4 Atlanta United II 26 57 40 +17 45
5 LA Galaxy II 26 54 34 +20 50
6 Austin II 26 51 21 +30 59
7 Houston Dynamo FC II 26 51 30 +21 51
8 Chattanooga 26 51 38 +13 50
9 New York City II 28 50 44 +6 47
10 Orlando City II 26 50 51 -1 41
11 Columbus Crew II 28 49 43 +6 48
12 Chicago Fire II 26 49 45 +4 39
13 Toronto II 28 48 56 -8 39
14 New England II 28 47 42 +5 48
15 San Jose Earthquakes II 26 45 36 +9 36
16 Los Angeles II 26 43 44 -1 42
17 Huntsville City 26 43 45 -2 38
18 St. Louis City II 26 41 37 +4 43
19 North Texas 26 41 39 +2 38
20 Tacoma Defiance 26 39 40 -1 39
21 Whitecaps II 26 38 55 -17 27
22 Bethlehem Steel 28 37 40 -3 43
23 Carolina Core 26 37 50 -13 28
24 Real Monarchs 25 36 50 -14 29
25 Portland Timbers II 26 35 27 +8 54
26 Minnesota United II 25 35 36 -1 37
27 FC Cincinnati II 28 32 62 -30 20
28 Swope Park Rangers 26 32 68 -36 20
29 Fort Lauderdale CF 26 27 63 -36 15
30 Colorado Rapids II 26 26 50 -24 18