Predictions / Football / Bolivia. Primera División / Real Potosí vs Real Tomayapo

Prediction Audit: Real Potosí vs Real Tomayapo Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Real Potosí Real Potosí
Aug 26, 2026 - 22:30
0 1.50
1 1.44
xG Accuracy: 59%
Real Tomayapo Real Tomayapo

The model missed the final outcome (Real Tomayapo win 0–1).

The model had projected Real Potosí at 37.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Real Potosí Real Tomayapo ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Real Potosí higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Real Potosí -33.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Real Potosí 37.6% 71.4% -33.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 27.5% 16.9% +10.6 pp Model Edge
Real Tomayapo 34.9% 11.7% +23.2 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Real Potosí's win probability at 71.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.6%, a difference of 33.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Real Tomayapo win 0–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Real Potosí by 33.8 percentage points (71.4% vs model 37.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 26, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Real Potosí 37.6% · Draw 27.6% · Real Tomayapo 34.9%
    • xG · Real Potosí 1.50 — Real Tomayapo 1.44
  2. Aug 26, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Real Potosí 1.26 · Draw 5.31 · Real Tomayapo 7.71
    • Implied 1X2 · Real Potosí 71.4% · Draw 16.9% · Real Tomayapo 11.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 26, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Real Potosí 1.26 · Draw 5.31 · Real Tomayapo 7.71
    • Implied 1X2 · Real Potosí 71.4% · Draw 16.9% · Real Tomayapo 11.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 26, 2026 · 22:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Real Tomayapo win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 32/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (34 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 20, 2026 · 03:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4680655

Closing Odds 1.26
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Real Tomayapo win · Real Potosí 0–1 Real Tomayapo
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Real Potosí; market prices Real Potosí instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Real Potosí 1.50 xG vs Real Tomayapo 1.44 → Real Potosí 37.6%
  • Market: Real Potosí ~71.4% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 43.7% · Over 2.5 56.3%); BTTS Yes (Yes 60.8% · No 39.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División Primera División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Always Ready 20 13 6 1 45
2 Bolívar 20 14 3 3 45
3 The Strongest 20 12 6 2 42
4 Real Potosí 20 8 8 4 32
5 Oriente Petrolero 20 9 3 8 30
6 Aurora 20 7 9 4 30
7 Guabirá 20 8 5 7 29
8 Blooming 20 6 9 5 27
9 Nacional Potosí 20 8 3 9 27
10 Independiente Petrolero 20 7 4 9 25
11 Real Oruro 20 6 3 11 21
12 ABB 20 6 2 12 20
13 San Antonio Bulo Bulo 20 6 2 12 20
14 Universitario de Vinto 20 5 3 12 18
15 Real Tomayapo 20 4 4 12 16
16 Gualberto Villarroel SJ 20 2 8 10 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bolívar 20 54 22 +32 45
2 Always Ready 20 47 13 +34 45
3 The Strongest 20 39 22 +17 42
4 Oriente Petrolero 20 36 27 +9 30
5 Guabirá 20 32 39 -7 29
6 Real Oruro 20 32 50 -18 21
7 Aurora 20 31 27 +4 30
8 ABB 20 31 45 -14 20
9 Blooming 20 30 22 +8 27
10 Nacional Potosí 20 30 28 +2 27
11 Real Potosí 20 27 14 +13 32
12 Independiente Petrolero 20 27 35 -8 25
13 Universitario de Vinto 20 26 39 -13 18
14 Gualberto Villarroel SJ 20 21 37 -16 14
15 San Antonio Bulo Bulo 20 21 40 -19 20
16 Real Tomayapo 20 15 39 -24 16
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Bolívar 20 1.6 1.4 +0.2 45
2 Real Potosí 20 1.4 1.6 -0.2 32
3 Always Ready 20 — — — 45
4 The Strongest 20 — — — 42
5 Oriente Petrolero 20 — — — 30
6 Aurora 20 — — — 30
7 Guabirá 20 — — — 29
8 Blooming 20 — — — 27
9 Nacional Potosí 20 — — — 27
10 Independiente Petrolero 20 — — — 25
11 Real Oruro 20 — — — 21
12 ABB 20 — — — 20
13 San Antonio Bulo Bulo 20 — — — 20
14 Universitario de Vinto 20 — — — 18
15 Real Tomayapo 20 — — — 16
16 Gualberto Villarroel SJ 20 — — — 14