Predictions / Football / Bulgaria. Second League / Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Hebar 1918

Prediction Audit: Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Hebar 1918 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Pirin Blagoevgrad Pirin Blagoevgrad
Aug 18, 2026 - 15:30
2 1.33
3 1.27
xG Accuracy: 52%
Hebar 1918 Hebar 1918

The model missed the final outcome (Hebar 1918 win 2–3).

The model had projected Pirin Blagoevgrad at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Pirin Blagoevgrad Hebar 1918 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Hebar 1918 higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Hebar 1918 -9.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Pirin Blagoevgrad 36.6% 30.1% +6.5 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.6% 26.5% +3.1 pp Aligned
Hebar 1918 33.8% 43.4% -9.6 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Hebar 1918's win probability at 43.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 9.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Hebar 1918 win 2–3.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Hebar 1918. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Pirin Blagoevgrad; match finished Hebar 1918

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Pirin Blagoevgrad by 9.6 percentage points (46.2% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 18, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Pirin Blagoevgrad 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Hebar 1918 33.8%
    • xG · Pirin Blagoevgrad 1.33 — Hebar 1918 1.27
  2. Aug 18, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Pirin Blagoevgrad 2.99 · Draw 3.35 · Hebar 1918 2.03
    • Implied 1X2 · Pirin Blagoevgrad 29.7% · Draw 26.5% · Hebar 1918 43.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 18, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Pirin Blagoevgrad 2.95 · Draw 3.35 · Hebar 1918 2.05
    • Implied 1X2 · Pirin Blagoevgrad 30.1% · Draw 26.5% · Hebar 1918 43.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 18, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Hebar 1918 win · 2–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 18/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 12, 2026 · 02:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3727650

Closing Odds 2.05
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Hebar 1918 win · Pirin Blagoevgrad 2–3 Hebar 1918
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Second League
  • Fixture: Pirin Blagoevgrad vs Hebar 1918
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-18 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Pirin Blagoevgrad 1.33 — Hebar 1918 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League Second League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vihren 11 7 3 1 24
2 CSKA Sofia II 11 7 2 2 23
3 Fratria 11 6 4 1 22
4 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 11 6 3 2 21
5 Beroe 11 5 3 3 18
6 Rilski Sportist 11 5 3 3 18
7 Nesebar 11 5 2 4 17
8 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 11 4 4 3 16
9 Yantra 2019 11 5 1 5 16
10 Hebar 1918 11 4 2 5 14
11 Etar Veliko Tarnovo 10 4 2 4 14
12 Marek 11 4 2 5 14
13 Spartak Pleven 11 4 1 6 13
14 Ludogorets II 10 3 3 4 12
15 Montana 11 3 2 6 11
16 Sportist Svoge 11 2 4 5 10
17 Dobrudzha 11 2 3 6 9
18 Pirin Blagoevgrad 11 0 0 11 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vihren 11 25 11 +14 24
2 Hebar 1918 11 24 19 +5 14
3 CSKA Sofia II 11 23 9 +14 23
4 Nesebar 11 20 17 +3 17
5 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 11 18 8 +10 21
6 Fratria 11 17 8 +9 22
7 Etar Veliko Tarnovo 10 17 19 -2 14
8 Beroe 11 16 12 +4 18
9 Rilski Sportist 11 14 10 +4 18
10 Montana 11 13 23 -10 11
11 Yantra 2019 11 12 11 +1 16
12 Dobrudzha 11 12 18 -6 9
13 Marek 11 11 12 -1 14
14 Spartak Pleven 11 11 22 -11 13
15 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 11 9 10 -1 16
16 Ludogorets II 10 9 10 -1 12
17 Sportist Svoge 11 7 10 -3 10
18 Pirin Blagoevgrad 11 4 33 -29 0