Predictions / Football / Costa-Rica. Liga de Ascenso / Futbol Consultants Moravia vs Cariari Pococi

Prediction Audit: Futbol Consultants Moravia vs Cariari Pococi Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Futbol Consultants Moravia Futbol Consultants Moravia
Aug 21, 2026 - 20:00
0 1.37
1 1.23
xG Accuracy: 64%
Cariari Pococi Cariari Pococi

The model missed the final outcome (Cariari Pococi win 0–1).

The model had projected Futbol Consultants Moravia at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Futbol Consultants Moravia Cariari Pococi ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Futbol Consultants Moravia; match finished Cariari Pococi

Market lesson

The full-time result was Cariari Pococi win 0–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 21, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Futbol Consultants Moravia 1.37 — Cariari Pococi 1.23
  2. Aug 21, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Cariari Pococi win · 0–1
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 17, 2026 · 01:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4371805

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Cariari Pococi win · Futbol Consultants Moravia 0–1 Cariari Pococi
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Liga de Ascenso
  • Fixture: Futbol Consultants Moravia vs Cariari Pococi
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-21 20:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): Futbol Consultants Moravia 1.37 — Cariari Pococi 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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Liga de Ascenso Liga de Ascenso — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Aserri FC 18 8 3 7 27
2 ADR Jicaral 9 6 3 0 21
3 Santa Ana 10 7 0 3 21
4 Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 10 5 4 1 19
5 Quepos Cambute 9 5 1 3 16
6 AD Carmelita 10 4 3 3 15
7 Municipal Grecia 8 4 2 2 14
8 Cariari Pococi 10 3 4 3 13
9 AD Sarchí 8 3 2 3 11
10 Futbol Consultants Moravia 10 3 1 6 10
11 Guadalupe FC 10 2 3 5 9
12 CS Uruguay 10 2 3 5 9
13 Santa Cruz FC 9 2 0 7 6
14 AD Cofutpa 9 1 1 7 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Aserri FC 18 21 21 0 27
2 AD Carmelita 10 19 11 +8 15
3 Pitbulls Santa Barbara FC 10 18 13 +5 19
4 ADR Jicaral 9 15 5 +10 21
5 Santa Ana 10 14 10 +4 21
6 Quepos Cambute 9 13 7 +6 16
7 Guadalupe FC 10 13 19 -6 9
8 Futbol Consultants Moravia 10 12 13 -1 10
9 Cariari Pococi 10 11 11 0 13
10 Santa Cruz FC 9 11 19 -8 6
11 Municipal Grecia 8 9 6 +3 14
12 CS Uruguay 10 9 18 -9 9
13 AD Sarchí 8 8 11 -3 11
14 AD Cofutpa 9 8 17 -9 4
Liga de Ascenso Costa-Rica. Liga de Ascenso Predictions