AI correctly predicted the Courtételle win.
The match finished 4–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Courtételle Courtételle ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtételle | 39.9% | 52.0% | -12.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 24.4% | +5.1 pp | Model Higher |
| Münsingen | 30.6% | 23.7% | +6.9 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Courtételle's win probability at 52.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.9%, a difference of 12.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Courtételle win 4–0).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Courtételle than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Courtételle higher (51.9% vs model 39.9%, 12.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Courtételle win 4–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 26, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Courtételle 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Münsingen 30.6%
- xG · Courtételle 1.40 — Münsingen 1.20
-
Aug 26, 2026 · 17:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Courtételle 1.74 · Draw 3.71 · Münsingen 3.82
- Implied 1X2 · Courtételle 52.0% · Draw 24.4% · Münsingen 23.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 26, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Courtételle 1.74 · Draw 3.71 · Münsingen 3.82
- Implied 1X2 · Courtételle 52.0% · Draw 24.4% · Münsingen 23.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 26, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Courtételle win · 4–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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1. Liga Classic - Group 2 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Langenthal | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19 |
| 2 | Schötz | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 3 | Courtételle | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | Buochs | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Muri-Gümligen | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Concordia Basel | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Delémont | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | FC Wohlen | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 | Muttenz | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | Solothurn | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 11 | Bassecourt | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 12 | Grasshopper II | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 13 | Thun II | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 14 | Black Stars | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 15 | Zug | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 16 | Münsingen | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Langenthal | 7 | 21 | 12 | +9 | 19 |
| 2 | Schötz | 8 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 14 |
| 3 | Solothurn | 8 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 10 |
| 4 | Courtételle | 8 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 13 |
| 5 | Buochs | 8 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 13 |
| 6 | Thun II | 8 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 9 |
| 7 | Concordia Basel | 8 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 11 |
| 8 | Delémont | 7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 | Muttenz | 7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 10 |
| 10 | Bassecourt | 8 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 10 |
| 11 | Zug | 8 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 7 |
| 12 | Muri-Gümligen | 7 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 13 |
| 13 | Grasshopper II | 7 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | FC Wohlen | 8 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 11 |
| 15 | Black Stars | 8 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 8 |
| 16 | Münsingen | 7 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 2 |
