The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Səbail at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Səbail Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xankəndi FK | 32.9% | 21.3% | +11.5 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.6% | +4.0 pp | Aligned |
| Səbail | 37.5% | 53.1% | -15.6 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Səbail's win probability at 53.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 15.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Səbail than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Səbail; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Səbail by 15.6 percentage points (53.1% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 03, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Xankəndi FK 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Səbail 37.6%
- xG · Xankəndi FK 1.25 — Səbail 1.35
-
Sep 03, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Xankəndi FK 3.90 · Draw 3.35 · Səbail 1.75
- Implied 1X2 · Xankəndi FK 22.8% · Draw 26.5% · Səbail 50.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 03, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Xankəndi FK 4.21 · Draw 3.51 · Səbail 1.69
- Implied 1X2 · Xankəndi FK 21.3% · Draw 25.6% · Səbail 53.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 03, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (16 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Birinci Dasta — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Şahdağ | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Cəbrayıl | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | Səbail | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Karvan | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | MOIK | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Zaqatala | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Xankəndi FK | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 8 | Energetik | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 9 | Şimal | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 10 | Baku Sportinq | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Şahdağ | 3 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 | Cəbrayıl | 3 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 9 |
| 3 | Karvan | 3 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 4 | Zaqatala | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | Səbail | 3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 6 | MOIK | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 |
| 7 | Energetik | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
| 8 | Şimal | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
| 9 | Xankəndi FK | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 |
| 10 | Baku Sportinq | 3 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 0 |
