Prediction Audit: Hodonín vs Sigma Olomouc II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Hodonín

Sep 02, 2026 - 14:30

2 1.25

0 1.35

xG Accuracy: 56%

Sigma Olomouc II

The model missed the final outcome (Hodonín win 2–0).

The model had projected Sigma Olomouc II at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Sigma Olomouc II Hodonín ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Hodonín	32.9%	30.7%	+2.1 pp	Aligned
Draw	29.6%	25.8%	+3.8 pp	Aligned
Sigma Olomouc II	37.5%	43.4%	-5.9 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates Sigma Olomouc II's win probability at 43.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 5.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Hodonín win 2–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Sigma Olomouc II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
1X2: model leaned Sigma Olomouc II; match finished Hodonín

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Sigma Olomouc II by 5.9 percentage points (43.4% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 02, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Hodonín 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Sigma Olomouc II 37.6%
- xG · Hodonín 1.25 — Sigma Olomouc II 1.35
Sep 02, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Hodonín 2.94 · Draw 3.50 · Sigma Olomouc II 2.08
- Implied 1X2 · Hodonín 30.7% · Draw 25.8% · Sigma Olomouc II 43.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 02, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Hodonín 2.94 · Draw 3.50 · Sigma Olomouc II 2.08
- Implied 1X2 · Hodonín 30.7% · Draw 25.8% · Sigma Olomouc II 43.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 02, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Hodonín win · 2–0
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Market Compatibility 70/100

Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 27, 2026 · 01:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5620972

Closing Odds 2.08

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Hodonín win · Hodonín 2–0 Sigma Olomouc II

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: 3. liga - MSFL
Fixture: Hodonín vs Sigma Olomouc II
Kickoff: 2026-09-02 14:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
xG (showing): Hodonín 1.25 — Sigma Olomouc II 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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3. liga - MSFL — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Líšeň II	10	7	3	0	24
2	Zbrojovka Brno II	10	7	1	2	22
3	Frýdek-Místek	9	5	3	1	18
4	Uničov	9	5	2	2	17
5	Sigma Olomouc II	10	5	1	4	16
6	Hranice	10	5	1	4	16
7	Vítkovice	10	4	4	2	16
8	Unie Hlubina	10	4	3	3	15
9	Slovácko II	10	4	3	3	15
10	Uherský Brod	10	4	2	4	14
11	Vrchovina	10	4	2	4	14
12	Zlín II	10	3	3	4	12
13	Hodonín	10	3	2	5	11
14	Karviná II	10	3	2	5	11
15	Blansko	10	1	4	5	7
16	Vsetín	10	2	1	7	7
17	Havířov	9	0	4	5	4
18	Polanka nad Odrou	9	0	3	6	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Unie Hlubina	10	25	18	+7	15
2	Zbrojovka Brno II	10	23	15	+8	22
3	Líšeň II	10	19	3	+16	24
4	Sigma Olomouc II	10	18	12	+6	16
5	Uničov	9	17	13	+4	17
6	Slovácko II	10	16	11	+5	15
7	Uherský Brod	10	16	16	0	14
8	Frýdek-Místek	9	15	7	+8	18
9	Karviná II	10	15	20	-5	11
10	Blansko	10	15	27	-12	7
11	Hranice	10	14	9	+5	16
12	Zlín II	10	12	16	-4	12
13	Vítkovice	10	11	7	+4	16
14	Vrchovina	10	11	16	-5	14
15	Hodonín	10	10	12	-2	11
16	Vsetín	10	10	24	-14	7
17	Polanka nad Odrou	9	5	14	-9	3
18	Havířov	9	4	16	-12	4