Predictions / Football / Iceland. Úrvalsdeild / Fram Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri

Prediction Audit: Fram Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Fram Reykjavik Fram Reykjavik
Aug 30, 2026 - 17:00
2 1.30
2 1.30
xG Accuracy: 68%
KA Akureyri KA Akureyri

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Fram Reykjavik at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Fram Reykjavik Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Fram Reykjavik higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Fram Reykjavik -27.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Fram Reykjavik 35.2% 62.8% -27.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 18.1% +11.6 pp Model Edge
KA Akureyri 35.2% 19.1% +16.0 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Fram Reykjavik's win probability at 62.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 27.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Fram Reykjavik; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Fram Reykjavik by 27.6 percentage points (62.8% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 30, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Fram Reykjavik 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · KA Akureyri 35.2%
    • xG · Fram Reykjavik 1.30 — KA Akureyri 1.30
  2. Aug 30, 2026 · 16:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Fram Reykjavik 1.51 · Draw 5.24 · KA Akureyri 4.95
    • Implied 1X2 · Fram Reykjavik 62.8% · Draw 18.1% · KA Akureyri 19.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 30, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Fram Reykjavik 1.51 · Draw 5.24 · KA Akureyri 4.95
    • Implied 1X2 · Fram Reykjavik 62.8% · Draw 18.1% · KA Akureyri 19.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 30, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (28 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 31/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 24, 2026 · 02:24 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5301479

Closing Odds 1.51
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Fram Reykjavik 2–2 KA Akureyri
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Úrvalsdeild
  • Fixture: Fram Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-30 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Fram Reykjavik 1.3 — KA Akureyri 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Úrvalsdeild Úrvalsdeild — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 22 16 5 1 53
2 Fram Reykjavik 22 13 6 3 45
3 KR Reykjavik 22 13 5 4 44
4 Breidablik 22 8 6 8 30
5 IA Akranes 22 8 6 8 30
6 Keflavik 22 8 4 10 28
7 Stjarnan 22 8 4 10 28
8 Valur Reykjavik 22 8 3 11 27
9 FH hafnarfjordur 22 4 9 9 21
10 Thor Akureyri 22 6 3 13 21
11 KA Akureyri 22 5 5 12 20
12 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 22 4 6 12 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 KR Reykjavik 22 74 49 +25 44
2 Vikingur Reykjavik 22 67 21 +46 53
3 Fram Reykjavik 22 56 42 +14 45
4 Breidablik 22 43 41 +2 30
5 Stjarnan 22 42 50 -8 28
6 IA Akranes 22 39 41 -2 30
7 Valur Reykjavik 22 39 45 -6 27
8 KA Akureyri 22 35 48 -13 20
9 Keflavik 22 33 38 -5 28
10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 22 32 45 -13 18
11 FH hafnarfjordur 22 27 39 -12 21
12 Thor Akureyri 22 22 50 -28 21