Predictions / Football / Ireland. First Division / Treaty United vs Cork City

Prediction Audit: Treaty United vs Cork City Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Treaty United Treaty United
Aug 21, 2026 - 18:45
2 1.19
2 1.41
xG Accuracy: 68%
Cork City Cork City

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Cork City at 40.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Cork City Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Cork City; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 21, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Treaty United 1.19 — Cork City 1.41
  2. Aug 21, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 15, 2026 · 02:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4038913

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Treaty United 2–2 Cork City
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: First Division
  • Fixture: Treaty United vs Cork City
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-21 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.1% · Draw 29.4% · Away 40.5%
  • xG (showing): Treaty United 1.19 — Cork City 1.41 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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First Division First Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Cork City 34 22 5 7 71
2 Bray Wanderers 34 15 8 11 53
3 UCD 34 15 7 12 52
4 Cobh Ramblers 34 14 7 13 49
5 Longford Town 34 13 9 12 48
6 Kerry 34 13 9 12 48
7 Athlone Town 34 13 9 12 48
8 Wexford 34 11 8 15 41
9 Treaty United 34 9 9 16 36
10 Finn Harps 34 6 7 21 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Cork City 34 71 34 +37 71
2 Bray Wanderers 34 65 49 +16 53
3 UCD 34 61 48 +13 52
4 Longford Town 34 47 45 +2 48
5 Cobh Ramblers 34 46 50 -4 49
6 Kerry 34 42 40 +2 48
7 Athlone Town 34 41 40 +1 48
8 Wexford 34 40 51 -11 41
9 Treaty United 34 33 52 -19 36
10 Finn Harps 34 31 68 -37 25
First Division Ireland. First Division Predictions