Predictions / Football / China. Super League / Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng

Prediction Audit: Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Qingdao Youth Island Qingdao Youth Island
Aug 22, 2026 - 12:00
2 1.85
0 1.49
xG Accuracy: 64%
Shandong Luneng Shandong Luneng

AI correctly predicted the Qingdao Youth Island win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Qingdao Youth Island Qingdao Youth Island ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Qingdao Youth Island considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Qingdao Youth Island +7.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Qingdao Youth Island 45.0% 37.5% +7.5 pp Model Higher
Draw 25.0% 26.6% -1.6 pp Aligned
Shandong Luneng 30.0% 35.9% -6.0 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Qingdao Youth Island's win probability at 45.0%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 37.5%, a difference of 7.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Qingdao Youth Island win 2–0).

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Qingdao Youth Island.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Qingdao Youth Island attacking xG significantly stronger (1.85 vs 1.49)

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Qingdao Youth Island more conservatively (37.5% vs model 45.0%, 7.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Qingdao Youth Island win 2–0).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 22, 2026 · 19:23 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Qingdao Youth Island 45.0% · Draw 25.1% · Shandong Luneng 29.9%
    • xG · Qingdao Youth Island 1.85 — Shandong Luneng 1.49
  2. Aug 22, 2026 · 11:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Qingdao Youth Island 2.55 · Draw 3.62 · Shandong Luneng 2.70
    • Implied 1X2 · Qingdao Youth Island 37.8% · Draw 26.6% · Shandong Luneng 35.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 22, 2026 · 12:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Qingdao Youth Island 2.57 · Draw 3.62 · Shandong Luneng 2.68
    • Implied 1X2 · Qingdao Youth Island 37.5% · Draw 26.6% · Shandong Luneng 35.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 22, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Qingdao Youth Island win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 62/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 01:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4217235

Closing Odds 2.57
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Qingdao Youth Island win · Qingdao Youth Island 2–0 Shandong Luneng
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Super League
  • Fixture: Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-22 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Qingdao Youth Island 1.85 — Shandong Luneng 1.49 (total xG ≈ 3.34)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Super League Super League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Chengdu Better City 26 15 7 4 52
2 Dalian Zhixing 26 12 4 10 40
3 Beijing Guoan 26 11 10 5 38
4 Yunnan Yukun 26 11 5 10 38
5 Qingdao Youth Island 26 8 14 4 38
6 Shandong Luneng 26 13 4 9 37
7 SHANGHAI SIPG 26 10 8 8 33
8 Shanghai Shenhua 26 12 5 9 31
9 Chongqing Tongliang Long 26 7 10 9 31
10 Hangzhou Greentown 26 10 6 10 31
11 Sichuan Jiuniu 26 8 4 14 28
12 Henan Jianye 26 8 9 9 27
13 Shenyang Urban 26 7 4 15 25
14 Tianjin Teda 26 9 8 9 25
15 Wuhan Three Towns 26 5 11 10 21
16 Qingdao Jonoon 26 6 3 17 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Yunnan Yukun 26 54 51 +3 38
2 Shanghai Shenhua 26 52 46 +6 31
3 Chengdu Better City 26 51 30 +21 52
4 Beijing Guoan 26 49 33 +16 38
5 Shandong Luneng 26 46 43 +3 37
6 Hangzhou Greentown 26 45 43 +2 31
7 SHANGHAI SIPG 26 40 33 +7 33
8 Wuhan Three Towns 26 39 46 -7 21
9 Dalian Zhixing 26 38 42 -4 40
10 Tianjin Teda 26 36 32 +4 25
11 Sichuan Jiuniu 26 34 45 -11 28
12 Shenyang Urban 26 34 47 -13 25
13 Qingdao Jonoon 26 34 53 -19 14
14 Henan Jianye 26 33 35 -2 27
15 Qingdao Youth Island 26 31 32 -1 38
16 Chongqing Tongliang Long 26 27 32 -5 31
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Beijing Guoan 26 4.4 0.1 +4.3 38
2 Shenyang Urban 26 2.8 0.8 +2.0 25
3 Tianjin Teda 26 1.5 0.6 +0.9 25
4 Chengdu Better City 26 2.1 1.5 +0.6 52
5 Qingdao Youth Island 26 1.8 1.2 +0.6 38
6 Yunnan Yukun 26 2.6 2.3 +0.3 38
7 Dalian Zhixing 26 2.3 2.0 +0.3 40
8 Hangzhou Greentown 26 1.7 1.5 +0.2 31
9 Shanghai Shenhua 26 1.5 1.7 -0.2 31
10 Wuhan Three Towns 26 2.0 2.3 -0.3 21
11 Qingdao Jonoon 26 1.5 2.1 -0.6 14
12 SHANGHAI SIPG 26 1.2 1.8 -0.6 33
13 Sichuan Jiuniu 26 0.6 1.5 -0.9 28
14 Chongqing Tongliang Long 26 0.8 2.8 -2.0 31
15 Shandong Luneng 26 2.4 7.0 -4.6 37
16 Henan Jianye 26 — — — 27