Prediction Audit: KAMAZ vs FC Sochi Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

KAMAZ

Aug 24, 2026 - 14:30

2 1.30

3 1.30

xG Accuracy: 52%

FC Sochi

The model missed the final outcome (FC Sochi win 2–3).

The model had projected KAMAZ at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 KAMAZ FC Sochi ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
KAMAZ	35.2%	22.6%	+12.6 pp	Model Edge
Draw	29.6%	26.9%	+2.8 pp	Aligned
FC Sochi	35.2%	50.5%	-15.3 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates FC Sochi's win probability at 50.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 15.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was FC Sochi win 2–3.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about FC Sochi than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
1X2: model leaned KAMAZ; match finished FC Sochi

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on KAMAZ by 15.3 percentage points (50.5% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 24, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · KAMAZ 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · FC Sochi 35.2%
- xG · KAMAZ 1.30 — FC Sochi 1.30
Aug 24, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · KAMAZ 4.22 · Draw 3.55 · FC Sochi 1.89
- Implied 1X2 · KAMAZ 22.6% · Draw 26.9% · FC Sochi 50.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 24, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · KAMAZ 4.22 · Draw 3.55 · FC Sochi 1.89
- Implied 1X2 · KAMAZ 22.6% · Draw 26.9% · FC Sochi 50.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 24, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result FC Sochi win · 2–3
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (15 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 8/100

Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 18, 2026 · 02:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4455006

Closing Odds 1.89

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result FC Sochi win · KAMAZ 2–3 FC Sochi

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: First League
Fixture: KAMAZ vs FC Sochi
Kickoff: 2026-08-24 14:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
xG (showing): KAMAZ 1.3 — FC Sochi 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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First League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Nizhny Novgorod	12	10	1	1	31
2	Spartak Kostroma	11	7	3	1	24
3	FC Sochi	12	7	2	3	23
4	Veles	12	7	2	3	23
5	Ural	11	6	4	1	22
6	Torpedo Moskva	11	6	2	3	20
7	Rotor Volgograd	12	5	2	5	17
8	FC UFA	11	4	5	2	17
9	Shinnik Yaroslavl	11	3	6	2	15
10	Enisey	11	3	4	4	13
11	Arsenal Tula	12	3	4	5	13
12	FK Neftekhimik	12	4	0	8	12
13	Volga Ulyanovsk	11	3	2	6	11
14	Chelyabinsk	11	3	2	6	11
15	Leningradets	11	2	4	5	10
16	KAMAZ	12	2	3	7	9
17	Tekstilshchik	12	1	4	7	7
18	Ska-khabarovsk	11	1	2	8	5

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Nizhny Novgorod	12	36	14	+22	31
2	Torpedo Moskva	11	21	9	+12	20
3	FC Sochi	12	21	14	+7	23
4	Rotor Volgograd	12	20	14	+6	17
5	Ural	11	18	5	+13	22
6	FC UFA	11	16	13	+3	17
7	Veles	12	16	14	+2	23
8	Spartak Kostroma	11	15	8	+7	24
9	Shinnik Yaroslavl	11	15	13	+2	15
10	Volga Ulyanovsk	11	14	17	-3	11
11	Enisey	11	14	19	-5	13
12	Chelyabinsk	11	12	18	-6	11
13	Arsenal Tula	12	12	22	-10	13
14	KAMAZ	12	11	19	-8	9
15	Ska-khabarovsk	11	11	23	-12	5
16	Leningradets	11	9	20	-11	10
17	Tekstilshchik	12	8	19	-11	7
18	FK Neftekhimik	12	7	15	-8	12