Predictions / Football / Russia. First League / Torpedo Moskva vs Spartak Kostroma

Prediction Audit: Torpedo Moskva vs Spartak Kostroma Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Torpedo Moskva Torpedo Moskva
Aug 21, 2026 - 16:30
3 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 44%
Spartak Kostroma Spartak Kostroma

AI correctly predicted the Torpedo Moskva win.

The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Torpedo Moskva Torpedo Moskva ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Torpedo Moskva win 3–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 21, 2026 · 16:31 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Torpedo Moskva 1.32 — Spartak Kostroma 1.28
  2. Aug 21, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Torpedo Moskva win · 3–0
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 15, 2026 · 01:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4028196

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Torpedo Moskva win · Torpedo Moskva 3–0 Spartak Kostroma
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: First League
  • Fixture: Torpedo Moskva vs Spartak Kostroma
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-21 16:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Torpedo Moskva 1.32 — Spartak Kostroma 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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First League First League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Nizhny Novgorod 12 10 1 1 31
2 Ural 12 7 4 1 25
3 Spartak Kostroma 12 7 3 2 24
4 FC Sochi 12 7 2 3 23
5 Veles 12 7 2 3 23
6 Torpedo Moskva 12 6 3 3 21
7 FC UFA 12 4 6 2 18
8 Rotor Volgograd 12 5 2 5 17
9 Shinnik Yaroslavl 12 3 7 2 16
10 Enisey 12 3 5 4 14
11 Arsenal Tula 12 3 4 5 13
12 Leningradets 12 3 4 5 13
13 Chelyabinsk 12 3 3 6 12
14 FK Neftekhimik 12 4 0 8 12
15 Volga Ulyanovsk 12 3 2 7 11
16 KAMAZ 12 2 3 7 9
17 Tekstilshchik 12 1 4 7 7
18 Ska-khabarovsk 12 1 3 8 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Nizhny Novgorod 12 36 14 +22 31
2 Torpedo Moskva 12 21 9 +12 21
3 FC Sochi 12 21 14 +7 23
4 Ural 12 20 6 +14 25
5 Rotor Volgograd 12 20 14 +6 17
6 Spartak Kostroma 12 16 10 +6 24
7 FC UFA 12 16 13 +3 18
8 Veles 12 16 14 +2 23
9 Shinnik Yaroslavl 12 15 13 +2 16
10 Enisey 12 15 20 -5 14
11 Volga Ulyanovsk 12 14 18 -4 11
12 Chelyabinsk 12 13 19 -6 12
13 Arsenal Tula 12 12 22 -10 13
14 KAMAZ 12 11 19 -8 9
15 Ska-khabarovsk 12 11 23 -12 6
16 Leningradets 12 10 20 -10 13
17 Tekstilshchik 12 8 19 -11 7
18 FK Neftekhimik 12 7 15 -8 12
First League Russia. First League Predictions