Predictions / Football / Poland. II Liga - East / Sandecja Nowy Sącz vs Górnik Łęczna

Prediction Audit: Sandecja Nowy Sącz vs Górnik Łęczna Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sandecja Nowy Sącz Sandecja Nowy Sącz
Aug 21, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.40
1 1.20
xG Accuracy: 85%
Górnik Łęczna Górnik Łęczna

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Sandecja Nowy Sącz at 39.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sandecja Nowy Sącz Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Sandecja Nowy Sącz; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 21, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1.40 — Górnik Łęczna 1.20
  2. Aug 21, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 15, 2026 · 01:29 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4026308

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1–1 Górnik Łęczna
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: II Liga - East
  • Fixture: Sandecja Nowy Sącz vs Górnik Łęczna
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-21 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 30.6%
  • xG (showing): Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1.4 — Górnik Łęczna 1.2 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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See Upcoming II Liga - East Matches Track Sandecja Nowy Sącz Next Match Prediction Track Górnik Łęczna Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

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II Liga - East II Liga - East — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Znicz Pruszków 10 7 2 1 23
2 Górnik Łęczna 10 6 2 2 20
3 Tychy 71 10 5 5 0 20
4 Podhale Nowy Targ 11 5 3 3 18
5 Rekord Bielsko-Biała 11 5 2 4 17
6 Zawisza Bydgoszcz 10 4 4 2 16
7 Sandecja Nowy Sącz 11 4 4 3 16
8 Lechia Zielona Góra 10 4 3 3 15
9 Hutnik Kraków 10 4 3 3 15
10 Chojniczanka Chojnice 11 4 3 4 15
11 Olimpia Grudziądz 10 4 3 3 15
12 Avia Świdnik 10 3 2 5 11
13 Stal Stalowa Wola 10 3 1 6 10
14 Legia Warszawa II 9 3 0 6 9
15 Śląsk Wrocław II 9 3 0 6 9
16 Sokół Kleczew 10 1 5 4 8
17 Świt Skolwin 10 2 2 6 8
18 Resovia Rzeszów 10 0 4 6 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Znicz Pruszków 10 23 12 +11 23
2 Podhale Nowy Targ 11 22 20 +2 18
3 Górnik Łęczna 10 21 10 +11 20
4 Lechia Zielona Góra 10 20 16 +4 15
5 Chojniczanka Chojnice 11 19 19 0 15
6 Legia Warszawa II 9 18 17 +1 9
7 Zawisza Bydgoszcz 10 17 13 +4 16
8 Rekord Bielsko-Biała 11 16 12 +4 17
9 Hutnik Kraków 10 16 13 +3 15
10 Stal Stalowa Wola 10 16 21 -5 10
11 Sandecja Nowy Sącz 11 15 12 +3 16
12 Śląsk Wrocław II 9 15 17 -2 9
13 Tychy 71 10 14 6 +8 20
14 Olimpia Grudziądz 10 13 16 -3 15
15 Avia Świdnik 10 13 17 -4 11
16 Sokół Kleczew 10 11 23 -12 8
17 Świt Skolwin 10 11 24 -13 8
18 Resovia Rzeszów 10 7 19 -12 4
II Liga - East Poland. II Liga - East Predictions