Predictions / Football / Peru. Segunda División / Alianza Universidad vs Bentín Tacna Heroica

Prediction Audit: Alianza Universidad vs Bentín Tacna Heroica Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Alianza Universidad Alianza Universidad
Aug 24, 2026 - 20:00
1 1.40
0 1.20
xG Accuracy: 64%
Bentín Tacna Heroica Bentín Tacna Heroica

AI correctly predicted the Alianza Universidad win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Alianza Universidad Alianza Universidad ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Bentín Tacna Heroica -3.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Alianza Universidad 39.9% 38.5% +1.5 pp Aligned
Draw 29.5% 27.8% +1.7 pp Aligned
Bentín Tacna Heroica 30.6% 33.8% -3.2 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Alianza Universidad win 1–0).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Alianza Universidad win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 24, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Alianza Universidad 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Bentín Tacna Heroica 30.6%
    • xG · Alianza Universidad 1.40 — Bentín Tacna Heroica 1.20
  2. Aug 24, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Alianza Universidad 2.31 · Draw 3.20 · Bentín Tacna Heroica 2.63
    • Implied 1X2 · Alianza Universidad 38.5% · Draw 27.8% · Bentín Tacna Heroica 33.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 24, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Alianza Universidad 2.31 · Draw 3.20 · Bentín Tacna Heroica 2.63
    • Implied 1X2 · Alianza Universidad 38.5% · Draw 27.8% · Bentín Tacna Heroica 33.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 24, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Alianza Universidad win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 84/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 18, 2026 · 02:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4457358

Closing Odds 2.63
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Alianza Universidad win · Alianza Universidad 1–0 Bentín Tacna Heroica
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Segunda División
  • Fixture: Alianza Universidad vs Bentín Tacna Heroica
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-24 20:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 30.6%
  • xG (showing): Alianza Universidad 1.4 — Bentín Tacna Heroica 1.2 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División Segunda División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Union Comercio 16 9 5 2 32
2 Carlos A. Mannucci 16 9 3 4 30
3 Deportivo Llacuabamba 16 8 4 4 28
4 Molinos El Pirata 16 7 4 5 25
5 U. San Martin 16 7 3 6 24
6 Deportiva Agropecuaria 15 5 6 4 21
7 Cesar Vallejo 15 5 4 6 19
8 Academia Cantolao 16 3 5 8 14
9 San Marcos 14 0 0 14 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 U. San Martin 16 26 17 +9 24
2 Molinos El Pirata 16 25 20 +5 25
3 Deportivo Llacuabamba 16 23 10 +13 28
4 Carlos A. Mannucci 16 22 12 +10 30
5 Union Comercio 16 19 5 +14 32
6 Academia Cantolao 16 19 30 -11 14
7 Deportiva Agropecuaria 15 14 12 +2 21
8 Cesar Vallejo 15 14 13 +1 19
9 San Marcos 14 1 44 -43 0
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