Prediction Audit: Sanat Naft vs Foolad FC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sanat Naft

Aug 24, 2026 - 17:00

0 1.22

3 1.38

xG Accuracy: 46%

Foolad FC

AI correctly predicted the Foolad FC win.

The match finished 0–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Foolad FC Foolad FC ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Sanat Naft	31.5%	22.5%	+9.0 pp	Model Higher
Draw	29.5%	29.6%	-0.1 pp	Aligned
Foolad FC	39.0%	47.9%	-8.9 pp	Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Sanat Naft's win probability at 31.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 22.5%, a difference of 9.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Foolad FC win 0–3).

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Sanat Naft.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Foolad FC more conservatively (30.0% vs model 39.0%, 9.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Foolad FC win 0–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 24, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Sanat Naft 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Foolad FC 39.0%
- xG · Sanat Naft 1.22 — Foolad FC 1.38
Aug 24, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Sanat Naft 4.00 · Draw 3.04 · Foolad FC 1.88
- Implied 1X2 · Sanat Naft 22.5% · Draw 29.6% · Foolad FC 47.9%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
Aug 24, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Sanat Naft 4.00 · Draw 3.04 · Foolad FC 1.88
- Implied 1X2 · Sanat Naft 22.5% · Draw 29.6% · Foolad FC 47.9%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
Aug 24, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Foolad FC win · 0–3
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

Statistical edge detected
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 55/100

Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 18, 2026 · 02:29 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4456353

Closing Odds 4.0

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Foolad FC win · Sanat Naft 0–3 Foolad FC

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Persian Gulf Pro League
Fixture: Sanat Naft vs Foolad FC
Kickoff: 2026-08-24 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.0%
xG (showing): Sanat Naft 1.22 — Foolad FC 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Persian Gulf Pro League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Tractor Sazi	7	5	1	1	16
2	Esteghlal FC	7	4	3	0	15
3	Persepolis FC	6	4	1	1	13
4	Aluminium Arak	6	3	3	0	12
5	Sepahan FC	6	3	1	2	10
6	Gol Gohar	7	3	1	3	10
7	Foolad FC	6	2	3	1	9
8	Paykan	7	2	2	3	8
9	Nassaji Mazandaran	7	2	2	3	8
10	Chadormalu SC	7	2	2	3	8
11	Fajr Sepasi	6	1	4	1	7
12	Malavan	6	2	1	3	7
13	Kheybar Khorramabad	6	1	3	2	6
14	ZOB Ahan	6	1	3	2	6
15	Esteghlal Khuzestan	7	1	3	3	6
16	Shams Azar Qazvin	7	1	2	4	5
17	Mes Shahr-e Babak	7	0	5	2	5
18	Sanat Naft	7	0	4	3	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Persepolis FC	6	12	3	+9	13
2	Esteghlal FC	7	9	1	+8	15
3	Tractor Sazi	7	8	1	+7	16
4	Aluminium Arak	6	8	3	+5	12
5	Kheybar Khorramabad	6	8	8	0	6
6	Gol Gohar	7	7	7	0	10
7	Shams Azar Qazvin	7	6	9	-3	5
8	Foolad FC	6	5	3	+2	9
9	Sepahan FC	6	5	4	+1	10
10	Paykan	7	5	6	-1	8
11	Malavan	6	5	8	-3	7
12	Mes Shahr-e Babak	7	5	10	-5	5
13	Nassaji Mazandaran	7	4	6	-2	8
14	Chadormalu SC	7	4	9	-5	8
15	Esteghlal Khuzestan	7	4	9	-5	6
16	Fajr Sepasi	6	3	3	0	7
17	ZOB Ahan	6	3	5	-2	6
18	Sanat Naft	7	2	8	-6	4