Prediction Audit: El Geish vs Masr Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

El Geish

Sep 01, 2026 - 14:00

0 1.01

1 0.80

xG Accuracy: 72%

Masr

The model missed the final outcome (Masr win 0–1).

The model had projected El Geish at 37.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 El Geish Masr ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
El Geish	37.7%	32.9%	+4.8 pp	Aligned
Draw	36.0%	36.2%	-0.2 pp	Aligned
Masr	26.3%	30.9%	-4.6 pp	Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Masr win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.81, 1 goals)
Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

1X2: model leaned El Geish; match finished Masr

Market lesson

The full-time result was Masr win 0–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 01, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · El Geish 37.7% · Draw 36.0% · Masr 26.3%
- xG · El Geish 1.01 — Masr 0.80
Sep 01, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · El Geish 2.90 · Draw 2.64 · Masr 3.09
- Implied 1X2 · El Geish 32.9% · Draw 36.2% · Masr 30.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 01, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · El Geish 2.90 · Draw 2.64 · Masr 3.09
- Implied 1X2 · El Geish 32.9% · Draw 36.2% · Masr 30.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 01, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Masr win · 0–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Market Compatibility 26/100

Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 26, 2026 · 02:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5502154

Closing Odds 2.9

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Masr win · El Geish 0–1 Masr

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Premier League
Fixture: El Geish vs Masr
Kickoff: 2026-09-01 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.7% · Draw 36.0% · Away 26.3%
xG (showing): El Geish 1.01 — Masr 0.8 (total xG ≈ 1.81)
Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.3%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 72.8% · Over 2.5 27.2%); BTTS No (Yes 36.7% · No 63.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 36.7% · No 63.3%
Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (16.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Pyramids FC	5	5	0	0	15
2	Zamalek SC	5	4	1	0	13
3	Al Ahly	5	4	1	0	13
4	Ceramica Cleopatra	5	4	0	1	12
5	Future FC	5	3	1	1	10
6	Al Ittihad	5	3	1	1	10
7	El Mokawloon	5	2	1	2	7
8	Petrojet	5	2	1	2	7
9	El Geish	5	2	1	2	7
10	Masr	5	2	1	2	7
11	Olympic El Qanah	5	1	3	1	6
12	AL Masry	5	2	0	3	6
13	National Bank of Egypt	5	2	0	3	6
14	Wadi Degla	5	1	2	2	5
15	Enppi	5	1	1	3	4
16	Smouha SC	5	1	1	3	4
17	Abu Qair Semad	5	1	0	4	3
18	El Gouna FC	5	0	2	3	2
19	Asyut Petrol	5	0	2	3	2
20	Ghazl El Mehalla	5	0	1	4	1

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Ceramica Cleopatra	5	10	3	+7	12
2	Pyramids FC	5	9	1	+8	15
3	Al Ahly	5	9	3	+6	13
4	Zamalek SC	5	8	1	+7	13
5	Petrojet	5	8	8	0	7
6	Future FC	5	7	4	+3	10
7	Al Ittihad	5	6	3	+3	10
8	El Mokawloon	5	6	5	+1	7
9	Enppi	5	6	9	-3	4
10	El Geish	5	5	5	0	7
11	Olympic El Qanah	5	5	5	0	6
12	AL Masry	5	5	7	-2	6
13	Masr	5	4	5	-1	7
14	Wadi Degla	5	4	5	-1	5
15	National Bank of Egypt	5	4	7	-3	6
16	El Gouna FC	5	3	6	-3	2
17	Smouha SC	5	1	4	-3	4
18	Asyut Petrol	5	1	5	-4	2
19	Abu Qair Semad	5	1	8	-7	3
20	Ghazl El Mehalla	5	1	9	-8	1

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Pyramids FC	5	4.7	1.0	+3.7	15
2	AL Masry	5	4.8	2.7	+2.1	6
3	Petrojet	5	5.3	3.7	+1.6	7
4	National Bank of Egypt	5	4.0	2.4	+1.6	6
5	Ceramica Cleopatra	5	5.5	4.1	+1.4	12
6	Al Ahly	5	4.2	3.0	+1.2	13
7	Wadi Degla	5	3.6	3.3	+0.3	5
8	Smouha SC	5	2.2	1.9	+0.3	4
9	Asyut Petrol	5	1.9	1.7	+0.2	2
10	Future FC	5	4.6	4.5	+0.1	10
11	Al Ittihad	5	3.7	3.6	+0.1	10
12	El Geish	5	2.9	3.0	-0.1	7
13	Masr	5	3.1	3.6	-0.5	7
14	Enppi	5	4.9	5.7	-0.8	4
15	Abu Qair Semad	5	0.9	1.7	-0.8	3
16	El Mokawloon	5	3.4	4.4	-1.0	7
17	El Gouna FC	5	3.2	4.9	-1.7	2
18	Olympic El Qanah	5	2.4	4.5	-2.1	6
19	Zamalek SC	5	2.6	5.0	-2.4	13
20	Ghazl El Mehalla	5	1.9	5.0	-3.1	1