Predictions / Football / Wales. Premier League / Ammanford AFC vs GAP Connah S Quay FC

Prediction Audit: Ammanford AFC vs GAP Connah S Quay FC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ammanford AFC Ammanford AFC
Aug 22, 2026 - 11:30
0 1.20
2 1.40
xG Accuracy: 61%
GAP Connah S Quay FC GAP Connah S Quay FC

AI correctly predicted the GAP Connah S Quay FC win.

The match finished 0–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 GAP Connah S Quay FC GAP Connah S Quay FC ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices GAP Connah S Quay FC higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: GAP Connah S Quay FC -28.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Ammanford AFC 30.6% 11.8% +18.8 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.5% 20.1% +9.4 pp Model Higher
GAP Connah S Quay FC 39.9% 68.2% -28.2 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates GAP Connah S Quay FC's win probability at 68.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.9%, a difference of 28.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (GAP Connah S Quay FC win 0–2).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced GAP Connah S Quay FC higher (68.1% vs model 39.9%, 28.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (GAP Connah S Quay FC win 0–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 22, 2026 · 11:31 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Ammanford AFC 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · GAP Connah S Quay FC 40.0%
    • xG · Ammanford AFC 1.20 — GAP Connah S Quay FC 1.40
  2. Aug 22, 2026 · 11:03 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Ammanford AFC 7.67 · Draw 4.48 · GAP Connah S Quay FC 1.24
    • Implied 1X2 · Ammanford AFC 11.2% · Draw 19.2% · GAP Connah S Quay FC 69.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 22, 2026 · 11:31 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Ammanford AFC 7.42 · Draw 4.34 · GAP Connah S Quay FC 1.28
    • Implied 1X2 · Ammanford AFC 11.8% · Draw 20.1% · GAP Connah S Quay FC 68.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 22, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result GAP Connah S Quay FC win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (28 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 31/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 01:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4216425

Closing Odds 1.28
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result GAP Connah S Quay FC win · Ammanford AFC 0–2 GAP Connah S Quay FC
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Premier League
  • Fixture: Ammanford AFC vs GAP Connah S Quay FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-22 11:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Away 40.0%
  • xG (showing): Ammanford AFC 1.2 — GAP Connah S Quay FC 1.4 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Premier League Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 The New Saints 10 9 1 0 28
2 Penybont 10 7 3 0 24
3 Caernarfon Town 10 7 1 2 22
4 GAP Connah S Quay FC 10 7 1 2 22
5 Barry Town 10 7 1 2 22
6 Colwyn Bay 10 6 1 3 19
7 Llandudno 10 5 1 4 16
8 Airbus UK 10 5 0 5 15
9 Cambrian & Clydach 10 4 3 3 15
10 Cardiff MET 9 4 2 3 14
11 Haverfordwest County AFC 9 3 1 5 10
12 Briton Ferry 10 2 2 6 8
13 Trefelin 10 0 3 7 3
14 Ammanford AFC 10 0 3 7 3
15 Flint Town United 10 0 2 8 2
16 Holywell 10 0 1 9 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Caernarfon Town 10 33 11 +22 22
2 The New Saints 10 26 4 +22 28
3 Barry Town 10 25 16 +9 22
4 GAP Connah S Quay FC 10 23 7 +16 22
5 Penybont 10 20 8 +12 24
6 Colwyn Bay 10 20 14 +6 19
7 Cardiff MET 9 19 11 +8 14
8 Llandudno 10 18 14 +4 16
9 Airbus UK 10 17 15 +2 15
10 Cambrian & Clydach 10 17 20 -3 15
11 Holywell 10 11 35 -24 1
12 Briton Ferry 10 9 19 -10 8
13 Flint Town United 10 8 24 -16 2
14 Haverfordwest County AFC 9 7 14 -7 10
15 Ammanford AFC 10 7 28 -21 3
16 Trefelin 10 4 24 -20 3
Premier League Wales. Premier League Predictions