Prediction Audit: Puebla W vs Atlético San Luis W Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Puebla W

Aug 23, 2026 - 18:00

2 1.16

5 1.44

xG Accuracy: 30%

Atlético San Luis W

AI correctly predicted the Atlético San Luis W win.

The match finished 2–5, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Atlético San Luis W Atlético San Luis W ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-5 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Puebla W	28.8%	18.8%	+10.0 pp	Model Higher
Draw	29.3%	21.0%	+8.3 pp	Model Higher
Atlético San Luis W	41.9%	60.1%	-18.3 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates Atlético San Luis W's win probability at 60.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.9%, a difference of 18.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Atlético San Luis W win 2–5).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Atlético San Luis W than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Atlético San Luis W higher (60.2% vs model 41.9%, 18.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Atlético San Luis W win 2–5).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 23, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Puebla W 28.8% · Draw 29.3% · Atlético San Luis W 41.9%
- xG · Puebla W 1.16 — Atlético San Luis W 1.44
Aug 23, 2026 · 17:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Puebla W 4.84 · Draw 4.26 · Atlético San Luis W 1.57
- Implied 1X2 · Puebla W 19.2% · Draw 21.8% · Atlético San Luis W 59.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 23, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Puebla W 4.99 · Draw 4.46 · Atlético San Luis W 1.56
- Implied 1X2 · Puebla W 18.8% · Draw 21.0% · Atlético San Luis W 60.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 23, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Atlético San Luis W win · 2–5
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (18 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 8/100

Betting Confidence 43/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 17, 2026 · 07:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4388459

Closing Odds 1.56

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Atlético San Luis W win · Puebla W 2–5 Atlético San Luis W

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Liga MX Femenil
Fixture: Puebla W vs Atlético San Luis W
Kickoff: 2026-08-23 18:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 28.8% · Draw 29.3% · Away 41.9%
xG (showing): Puebla W 1.16 — Atlético San Luis W 1.44 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Liga MX Femenil Matches Track Puebla W Next Match Prediction Track Atlético San Luis W Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Puebla W & Atlético San Luis W!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Predictions

Liga MX Femenil — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Monterrey W	9	8	0	1	24
2	América W	8	7	1	0	22
3	Tigres UANL W	9	7	1	1	22
4	Juárez W	9	7	0	2	21
5	Guadalajara W	9	6	0	3	18
6	Atlético San Luis W	9	5	1	3	16
7	Toluca W	8	5	1	2	16
8	Pumas UNAM W	9	4	1	4	13
9	León W	8	4	0	4	12
10	Atlas W	9	3	3	3	12
11	Santos Laguna W	9	4	0	5	12
12	Cruz Azul W	9	4	0	5	12
13	Pachuca W	9	3	1	5	10
14	Atlante W	9	2	1	6	7
15	Querétaro W	9	2	0	7	6
16	Tijuana W	9	2	0	7	6
17	Puebla W	9	1	0	8	3
18	Necaxa W	8	0	0	8	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	América W	8	37	7	+30	22
2	Monterrey W	9	35	10	+25	24
3	Tigres UANL W	9	29	9	+20	22
4	Atlético San Luis W	9	22	16	+6	16
5	Guadalajara W	9	20	11	+9	18
6	Toluca W	8	19	15	+4	16
7	Pumas UNAM W	9	17	14	+3	13
8	León W	8	15	12	+3	12
9	Juárez W	9	14	6	+8	21
10	Pachuca W	9	13	13	0	10
11	Puebla W	9	13	38	-25	3
12	Santos Laguna W	9	12	20	-8	12
13	Tijuana W	9	12	24	-12	6
14	Cruz Azul W	9	11	21	-10	12
15	Atlas W	9	10	17	-7	12
16	Querétaro W	9	10	21	-11	6
17	Atlante W	9	6	12	-6	7
18	Necaxa W	8	3	32	-29	0