Prediction Audit: Tiszakecske FC vs Diosgyori VTK Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tiszakecske FC

Aug 22, 2026 - 15:30

4 1.34

1 1.26

xG Accuracy: 45%

Diosgyori VTK

AI correctly predicted the Tiszakecske FC win.

The match finished 4–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Tiszakecske FC Tiszakecske FC ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Tiszakecske FC	37.1%	30.3%	+6.8 pp	Model Higher
Draw	29.6%	26.5%	+3.1 pp	Aligned
Diosgyori VTK	33.3%	43.2%	-9.9 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates Diosgyori VTK's win probability at 43.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 9.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Tiszakecske FC win 4–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Diosgyori VTK. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Tiszakecske FC higher (47.0% vs model 37.1%, 9.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Tiszakecske FC win 4–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 22, 2026 · 15:31 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Tiszakecske FC 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Diosgyori VTK 33.4%
- xG · Tiszakecske FC 1.34 — Diosgyori VTK 1.26
Aug 22, 2026 · 15:07 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Tiszakecske FC 2.99 · Draw 3.41 · Diosgyori VTK 2.10
- Implied 1X2 · Tiszakecske FC 30.3% · Draw 26.6% · Diosgyori VTK 43.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 22, 2026 · 15:31 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Tiszakecske FC 3.03 · Draw 3.46 · Diosgyori VTK 2.12
- Implied 1X2 · Tiszakecske FC 30.3% · Draw 26.5% · Diosgyori VTK 43.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 22, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Tiszakecske FC win · 4–1
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 17/100

Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 02:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4236085

Closing Odds 2.12

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Tiszakecske FC win · Tiszakecske FC 4–1 Diosgyori VTK

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: NB II
Fixture: Tiszakecske FC vs Diosgyori VTK
Kickoff: 2026-08-22 15:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
xG (showing): Tiszakecske FC 1.34 — Diosgyori VTK 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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NB II — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Soroksar	8	6	2	0	20
2	Kecskeméti TE	8	5	2	1	17
3	Tiszakecske FC	8	4	4	0	16
4	Ajka	7	4	2	1	14
5	Kazincbarcikai	8	3	4	1	13
6	Gyirmot SE	8	4	1	3	13
7	Mezokovesd-zsory	7	4	0	3	12
8	Karcag SE	8	2	5	1	11
9	Szentlőrinc SE	7	3	1	3	10
10	Fehérvár FC	8	3	0	5	9
11	Nagykanizsai ULE	8	3	0	5	9
12	Diosgyori VTK	7	2	1	4	7
13	Szeged 2011	7	1	3	3	6
14	BVSC	7	1	1	5	4
15	Kozarmisleny FC	8	1	1	6	4
16	Csakvar	8	1	1	6	4

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Soroksar	8	23	7	+16	20
2	Tiszakecske FC	8	17	10	+7	16
3	Kecskeméti TE	8	15	8	+7	17
4	Kazincbarcikai	8	13	11	+2	13
5	Karcag SE	8	13	11	+2	11
6	Gyirmot SE	8	13	14	-1	13
7	Mezokovesd-zsory	7	11	8	+3	12
8	Fehérvár FC	8	11	11	0	9
9	Ajka	7	9	6	+3	14
10	Szentlőrinc SE	7	8	9	-1	10
11	Diosgyori VTK	7	8	15	-7	7
12	Csakvar	8	8	19	-11	4
13	Nagykanizsai ULE	8	7	10	-3	9
14	Szeged 2011	7	6	8	-2	6
15	Kozarmisleny FC	8	6	16	-10	4
16	BVSC	7	4	9	-5	4