Predictions / Football / Slovakia. 3. liga - East / Partizán Bardejov vs Snina

Prediction Audit: Partizán Bardejov vs Snina Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Partizán Bardejov Partizán Bardejov
Aug 29, 2026 - 14:30
1 1.22
0 1.38
xG Accuracy: 64%
Snina Snina

The model missed the final outcome (Partizán Bardejov win 1–0).

The model had projected Snina at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Snina Partizán Bardejov ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Partizán Bardejov higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Partizán Bardejov -18.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Partizán Bardejov 31.5% 50.2% -18.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 24.8% +4.8 pp Aligned
Snina 39.0% 25.0% +13.9 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Partizán Bardejov's win probability at 50.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.5%, a difference of 18.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Partizán Bardejov win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Partizán Bardejov than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Snina; match finished Partizán Bardejov

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Snina by 18.7 percentage points (57.7% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 29, 2026 · 14:32 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Partizán Bardejov 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Snina 39.0%
    • xG · Partizán Bardejov 1.22 — Snina 1.38
  2. Aug 29, 2026 · 14:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Partizán Bardejov 1.77 · Draw 3.59 · Snina 3.55
    • Implied 1X2 · Partizán Bardejov 50.2% · Draw 24.8% · Snina 25.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 29, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Partizán Bardejov 1.77 · Draw 3.59 · Snina 3.55
    • Implied 1X2 · Partizán Bardejov 50.2% · Draw 24.8% · Snina 25.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 29, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Partizán Bardejov win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (19 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 2/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 03:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5146293

Closing Odds 1.77
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Partizán Bardejov win · Partizán Bardejov 1–0 Snina
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 3. liga - East
  • Fixture: Partizán Bardejov vs Snina
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-29 14:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.0%
  • xG (showing): Partizán Bardejov 1.22 — Snina 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.6%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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