AI correctly predicted the Puntarenas FC win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Puntarenas FC Puntarenas FC ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puntarenas FC | 38.5% | 48.5% | -10.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.0% | +3.5 pp | Aligned |
| Perez Zeledon | 31.9% | 25.5% | +6.5 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Puntarenas FC's win probability at 48.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 10.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Puntarenas FC win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Puntarenas FC than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Puntarenas FC higher (48.5% vs model 38.5%, 10.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Puntarenas FC win 1–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Puntarenas FC 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Perez Zeledon 31.9%
- xG · Puntarenas FC 1.37 — Perez Zeledon 1.23
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 00:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Puntarenas FC 1.96 · Draw 3.65 · Perez Zeledon 3.73
- Implied 1X2 · Puntarenas FC 48.5% · Draw 26.0% · Perez Zeledon 25.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Puntarenas FC 1.96 · Draw 3.65 · Perez Zeledon 3.73
- Implied 1X2 · Puntarenas FC 48.5% · Draw 26.0% · Perez Zeledon 25.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 01:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Puntarenas FC win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (10 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Primera División — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Saprissa | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 21 |
| 2 | CS Cartagines | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 18 |
| 3 | Sporting San Jose | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 4 | San Carlos | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | LD Alajuelense | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Inter San Carlos | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Puntarenas FC | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Perez Zeledon | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 9 | CS Herediano | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 10 | Escorpiones Belén | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Saprissa | 9 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 21 |
| 2 | CS Cartagines | 9 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 18 |
| 3 | Sporting San Jose | 9 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 17 |
| 4 | LD Alajuelense | 9 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 14 |
| 5 | Inter San Carlos | 9 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 14 |
| 6 | San Carlos | 9 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | Puntarenas FC | 9 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 11 |
| 8 | CS Herediano | 9 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 7 |
| 9 | Perez Zeledon | 9 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 8 |
| 10 | Escorpiones Belén | 9 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 4 |
