Predictions / Football / Venezuela. Primera División / Carabobo FC vs Zamora FC

Prediction Audit: Carabobo FC vs Zamora FC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Carabobo FC Carabobo FC
Aug 30, 2026 - 23:00
0 1.49
0 1.11
xG Accuracy: 49%
Zamora FC Zamora FC

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Carabobo FC at 44.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Carabobo FC Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Carabobo FC higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Carabobo FC -23.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Carabobo FC 44.3% 67.5% -23.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.0% 21.2% +7.8 pp Model Higher
Zamora FC 26.6% 11.3% +15.3 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Carabobo FC's win probability at 67.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 44.3%, a difference of 23.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Carabobo FC; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Carabobo FC by 23.2 percentage points (67.5% vs model 44.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 30, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Carabobo FC 44.3% · Draw 29.0% · Zamora FC 26.7%
    • xG · Carabobo FC 1.49 — Zamora FC 1.11
  2. Aug 30, 2026 · 22:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Carabobo FC 1.36 · Draw 4.34 · Zamora FC 8.14
    • Implied 1X2 · Carabobo FC 67.5% · Draw 21.2% · Zamora FC 11.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 30, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Carabobo FC 1.36 · Draw 4.34 · Zamora FC 8.14
    • Implied 1X2 · Carabobo FC 67.5% · Draw 21.2% · Zamora FC 11.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 30, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (23 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 27, 2026 · 01:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5617142

Closing Odds 1.36
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Carabobo FC 0–0 Zamora FC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera División
  • Fixture: Carabobo FC vs Zamora FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-30 23:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 44.3% · Draw 29.0% · Away 26.7%
  • xG (showing): Carabobo FC 1.49 — Zamora FC 1.11 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.5% · No 46.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.5% · No 46.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División Primera División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Metropolitanos FC 24 16 5 3 53
2 Deportivo Tachira FC 24 14 5 5 47
3 Real Esppor Club 24 12 7 5 43
4 UCV 24 11 5 8 38
5 Carabobo FC 24 9 10 5 37
6 Portuguesa FC 24 9 10 5 37
7 Puerto Cabello 24 9 9 6 36
8 Estudiantes de Merida FC 24 10 6 8 36
9 Caracas FC 24 5 11 8 26
10 Monagas SC 24 7 4 13 25
11 Zamora FC 24 6 7 11 25
12 Rayo Zuliano 24 7 4 13 25
13 Trujillanos FC 24 3 6 15 15
14 Academia Anzoátegui 24 3 5 16 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Metropolitanos FC 24 41 19 +22 53
2 Deportivo Tachira FC 24 41 26 +15 47
3 Real Esppor Club 24 36 22 +14 43
4 UCV 24 36 31 +5 38
5 Carabobo FC 24 35 22 +13 37
6 Portuguesa FC 24 34 24 +10 37
7 Estudiantes de Merida FC 24 33 30 +3 36
8 Puerto Cabello 24 31 23 +8 36
9 Rayo Zuliano 24 30 46 -16 25
10 Monagas SC 24 26 35 -9 25
11 Caracas FC 24 24 31 -7 26
12 Zamora FC 24 24 35 -11 25
13 Trujillanos FC 24 21 44 -23 15
14 Academia Anzoátegui 24 21 45 -24 14