The model missed the final outcome (Trofense win 1–0).
The model had projected São João Ver at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 São João Ver Trofense ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trofense | 34.2% | 33.6% | +0.7 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 31.8% | -2.1 pp | Aligned |
| São João Ver | 36.1% | 34.7% | +1.4 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the result was Trofense win 1–0.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned São João Ver; match finished Trofense
Market lesson
The full-time result was Trofense win 1–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 15:58 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Trofense 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · São João Ver 36.1%
- xG · Trofense 1.28 — São João Ver 1.32
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 15:35 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Trofense 2.83 · Draw 2.93 · São João Ver 2.61
- Implied 1X2 · Trofense 32.8% · Draw 31.7% · São João Ver 35.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 15:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Trofense 2.80 · Draw 2.96 · São João Ver 2.71
- Implied 1X2 · Trofense 33.6% · Draw 31.8% · São João Ver 34.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Trofense win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Liga 3 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paredes | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 1 | CF Os Belenenses | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | AD Marco 09 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 2 | Atlético CP | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 3 | Varzim | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 3 | Oliveirense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 4 | Fafe | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 4 | Mafra | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Vianense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 5 | Louletano | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Leça | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Caldas | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Guimaraes B | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 7 | Lusitano Évora 1911 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 8 | Trofense | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 8 | SC Covilha | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 9 | São João Ver | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | União Santarém | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 | Pacos Ferreira | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 10 | Vitória de Sernache | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CF Os Belenenses | 5 | 13 | 2 | +11 | 15 |
| 2 | Mafra | 5 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 7 |
| 3 | Atlético CP | 5 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 10 |
| 4 | Paredes | 5 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 12 |
| 5 | Fafe | 5 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 8 |
| 6 | Varzim | 5 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | Oliveirense | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Louletano | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | Leça | 5 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | AD Marco 09 | 5 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 10 |
| 11 | Vianense | 5 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 8 |
| 12 | Caldas | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 13 | Pacos Ferreira | 5 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 2 |
| 14 | Guimaraes B | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 15 | Lusitano Évora 1911 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 | SC Covilha | 5 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 17 | São João Ver | 5 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 |
| 18 | União Santarém | 5 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 4 |
| 19 | Vitória de Sernache | 5 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 1 |
| 20 | Trofense | 5 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 4 |
