The model missed the final outcome (Kapaz win 1–0).
The model had projected Turan at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Turan Kapaz ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-0 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kapaz | 29.7% | 16.8% | +12.9 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.4% | 25.9% | +3.5 pp | Aligned |
| Turan | 40.9% | 57.3% | -16.4 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Turan's win probability at 57.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.9%, a difference of 16.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the result was Kapaz win 1–0.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Turan than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Turan; match finished Kapaz
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Turan by 16.4 percentage points (57.3% vs model 40.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 30, 2026 · 13:55 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Kapaz 29.6% · Draw 29.4% · Turan 41.0%
- xG · Kapaz 1.18 — Turan 1.42
-
Aug 30, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Kapaz 5.47 · Draw 3.54 · Turan 1.60
- Implied 1X2 · Kapaz 16.8% · Draw 25.9% · Turan 57.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 30, 2026 · 13:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Kapaz 5.47 · Draw 3.54 · Turan 1.60
- Implied 1X2 · Kapaz 16.8% · Draw 25.9% · Turan 57.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 30, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Kapaz win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (16 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Premyer Liqa — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Baku | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 2 | Sabah FA | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 3 | Qarabag | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 4 | Turan | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 5 | Zira | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Keshla FC | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Kapaz | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Qabala | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 9 | Mil-Muğan | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 10 | Safa Baku | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 11 | Sumqayıt | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 12 | Araz | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Baku | 6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 15 |
| 2 | Sabah FA | 5 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 15 |
| 3 | Qarabag | 5 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 13 |
| 4 | Keshla FC | 6 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 9 |
| 5 | Zira | 6 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 | Turan | 6 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 11 |
| 7 | Mil-Muğan | 6 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 |
| 8 | Araz | 6 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 2 |
| 9 | Kapaz | 5 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 7 |
| 10 | Sumqayıt | 5 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 2 |
| 11 | Qabala | 6 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 4 |
| 12 | Safa Baku | 6 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 3 |
