Predictions / Football / Poland. III Liga - Group 1 / Ząbkovia Ząbki vs Wigry Suwałki

Prediction Audit: Ząbkovia Ząbki vs Wigry Suwałki Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ząbkovia Ząbki Ząbkovia Ząbki
Aug 19, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.19
1 1.41
xG Accuracy: 85%
Wigry Suwałki Wigry Suwałki

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Wigry Suwałki at 40.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Wigry Suwałki Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Wigry Suwałki higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Wigry Suwałki -8.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Ząbkovia Ząbki 30.1% 27.8% +2.3 pp Aligned
Draw 29.4% 23.4% +6.0 pp Model Higher
Wigry Suwałki 40.4% 48.8% -8.3 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Wigry Suwałki's win probability at 48.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.4%, a difference of 8.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Wigry Suwałki. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Wigry Suwałki; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Wigry Suwałki by 8.3 percentage points (48.7% vs model 40.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 19, 2026 · 14:57 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Ząbkovia Ząbki 30.1% · Draw 29.4% · Wigry Suwałki 40.5%
    • xG · Ząbkovia Ząbki 1.19 — Wigry Suwałki 1.41
  2. Aug 19, 2026 · 14:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Ząbkovia Ząbki 3.19 · Draw 3.79 · Wigry Suwałki 1.82
    • Implied 1X2 · Ząbkovia Ząbki 27.8% · Draw 23.4% · Wigry Suwałki 48.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 19, 2026 · 14:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Ząbkovia Ząbki 3.19 · Draw 3.79 · Wigry Suwałki 1.82
    • Implied 1X2 · Ząbkovia Ząbki 27.8% · Draw 23.4% · Wigry Suwałki 48.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 19, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 58/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 13, 2026 · 01:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3817730

Closing Odds 1.82
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Ząbkovia Ząbki 1–1 Wigry Suwałki
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: III Liga - Group 1
  • Fixture: Ząbkovia Ząbki vs Wigry Suwałki
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-19 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.1% · Draw 29.4% · Away 40.5%
  • xG (showing): Ząbkovia Ząbki 1.19 — Wigry Suwałki 1.41 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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III Liga - Group 1 III Liga - Group 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Weszlo 9 8 1 0 25
2 Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 10 6 2 2 20
3 Wigry Suwałki 10 5 4 1 19
4 Pelikan Łowicz 10 6 1 3 19
5 Wisła Płock II 10 5 3 2 18
6 Swit 10 5 2 3 17
7 Ząbkovia Ząbki 10 5 1 4 16
8 Jagiellonia II 10 4 3 3 15
9 Warta Sieradz 9 4 2 3 14
10 Widzew II 9 4 1 4 13
11 Lechia T. Mazowiecki 10 4 1 5 13
12 Olimpia Zambrów 10 3 2 5 11
13 ŁKS Łódź II 9 3 1 5 10
14 Olimpia Elbląg 10 3 1 6 10
15 Mławianka Mława 10 3 1 6 10
16 Troszyn 9 1 3 5 6
17 Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 9 1 2 6 5
18 Łomża 10 0 3 7 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 10 26 17 +9 20
2 Weszlo 9 22 6 +16 25
3 Wisła Płock II 10 22 17 +5 18
4 Jagiellonia II 10 22 20 +2 15
5 Widzew II 9 20 17 +3 13
6 Lechia T. Mazowiecki 10 20 21 -1 13
7 Olimpia Zambrów 10 20 26 -6 11
8 Mławianka Mława 10 20 28 -8 10
9 Ząbkovia Ząbki 10 19 18 +1 16
10 Wigry Suwałki 10 18 10 +8 19
11 Warta Sieradz 9 17 15 +2 14
12 Swit 10 16 10 +6 17
13 Pelikan Łowicz 10 16 12 +4 19
14 ŁKS Łódź II 9 15 18 -3 10
15 Olimpia Elbląg 10 14 20 -6 10
16 Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 9 13 20 -7 5
17 Troszyn 9 11 23 -12 6
18 Łomża 10 10 23 -13 3
III Liga - Group 1 Poland. III Liga - Group 1 Predictions