Prediction Audit: PRO Vercelli vs Desenzano Calvina Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

PRO Vercelli

Aug 23, 2026 - 16:00

1 1.25

1 1.35

xG Accuracy: 85%

Desenzano Calvina

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Desenzano Calvina at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Desenzano Calvina Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
PRO Vercelli	32.9%	40.3%	-7.5 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	30.2%	-0.6 pp	Aligned
Desenzano Calvina	37.5%	29.4%	+8.1 pp	Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Desenzano Calvina's win probability at 37.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 29.4%, a difference of 8.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Desenzano Calvina.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

1X2: model leaned Desenzano Calvina; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Desenzano Calvina by 8.1 percentage points (29.4% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 23, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · PRO Vercelli 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Desenzano Calvina 37.6%
- xG · PRO Vercelli 1.25 — Desenzano Calvina 1.35
Aug 23, 2026 · 15:36 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · PRO Vercelli 2.30 · Draw 3.07 · Desenzano Calvina 3.15
- Implied 1X2 · PRO Vercelli 40.3% · Draw 30.2% · Desenzano Calvina 29.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 23, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · PRO Vercelli 2.30 · Draw 3.07 · Desenzano Calvina 3.15
- Implied 1X2 · PRO Vercelli 40.3% · Draw 30.2% · Desenzano Calvina 29.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 23, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

Statistical edge detected
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 20/100

Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 17, 2026 · 01:41 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4368863

Closing Odds 3.15

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · PRO Vercelli 1–1 Desenzano Calvina

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Serie C - Girone A
Fixture: PRO Vercelli vs Desenzano Calvina
Kickoff: 2026-08-23 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
xG (showing): PRO Vercelli 1.25 — Desenzano Calvina 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Serie C - Girone A — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Cittadella	7	7	0	0	21
2	Union Brescia	7	4	3	0	15
3	Ospitaletto	7	4	2	1	14
4	Arzignano Valchiampo	7	4	1	2	13
5	Trento	7	3	4	0	13
6	Treviso	7	3	3	1	12
7	Alcione	7	2	4	1	10
8	Dolomiti Bellunesi	7	2	4	1	10
9	Albinoleffe	7	2	3	2	9
10	Lumezzane	7	2	2	3	8
11	Lecco	7	2	2	3	8
12	Desenzano Calvina	7	1	4	2	7
13	Pergolettese	7	1	4	2	7
14	Athletic Carpi	7	1	3	3	6
15	Folgore Caratese	7	1	3	3	6
16	Juventus U23	7	1	3	3	6
17	Novara	7	1	3	3	6
18	PRO Vercelli	7	1	3	3	6
19	Giana Erminio	7	0	3	4	3
20	Renate	7	0	2	5	2

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Cittadella	7	13	2	+11	21
2	Ospitaletto	7	13	5	+8	14
3	Union Brescia	7	12	4	+8	15
4	Arzignano Valchiampo	7	10	7	+3	13
5	Albinoleffe	7	10	9	+1	9
6	Alcione	7	10	11	-1	10
7	Athletic Carpi	7	10	15	-5	6
8	Trento	7	9	3	+6	13
9	Treviso	7	8	6	+2	12
10	Folgore Caratese	7	8	10	-2	6
11	Lumezzane	7	7	9	-2	8
12	Juventus U23	7	7	13	-6	6
13	Dolomiti Bellunesi	7	6	5	+1	10
14	Novara	7	6	9	-3	6
15	Giana Erminio	7	6	10	-4	3
16	PRO Vercelli	7	6	11	-5	6
17	Renate	7	5	11	-6	2
18	Lecco	7	4	6	-2	8
19	Desenzano Calvina	7	4	6	-2	7
20	Pergolettese	7	1	3	-2	7