The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Al Jeel at 41.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Al Jeel Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Jeel | 41.4% | 27.2% | +14.2 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.4% | 33.4% | -4.0 pp | Aligned |
| Jeddah Club | 29.2% | 39.4% | -10.2 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Al Jeel's win probability at 41.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 27.2%, a difference of 14.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Al Jeel.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Al Jeel; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Al Jeel by 14.2 percentage points (27.2% vs model 41.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 01, 2026 · 15:39 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Al Jeel 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Jeddah Club 29.3%
- xG · Al Jeel 1.43 — Jeddah Club 1.17
-
Sep 01, 2026 · 15:09 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Al Jeel 3.39 · Draw 2.76 · Jeddah Club 2.34
- Implied 1X2 · Al Jeel 27.2% · Draw 33.4% · Jeddah Club 39.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 01, 2026 · 15:39 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Al Jeel 3.39 · Draw 2.76 · Jeddah Club 2.34
- Implied 1X2 · Al Jeel 27.2% · Draw 33.4% · Jeddah Club 39.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 01, 2026 · 15:40 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Division 1 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ula | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Al Zulfi | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 3 | Al Taee | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Al Anwar | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 5 | Damac | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | Al Jabalain | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Al Wehda Club | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Al-Adalah | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | Jeddah Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Al Saqer | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Al Najma | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 12 | Al Orubah | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 13 | Al-Raed | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 14 | Al Akhdoud | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 15 | Hajer | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 16 | Al Jandal | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 17 | Al Bukayriyah | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| 18 | Al Jeel | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ula | 5 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 15 |
| 2 | Al Wehda Club | 6 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 8 |
| 3 | Al Taee | 6 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | Al-Adalah | 6 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 8 |
| 5 | Al Jandal | 6 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Al Zulfi | 6 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 10 |
| 7 | Damac | 6 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 8 | Al Najma | 6 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | Al Akhdoud | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Al-Raed | 6 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 |
| 11 | Jeddah Club | 6 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Al Anwar | 6 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 9 |
| 13 | Al Saqer | 6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 14 | Al Jabalain | 6 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| 15 | Al Orubah | 6 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 16 | Hajer | 6 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Al Bukayriyah | 6 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 2 |
| 18 | Al Jeel | 6 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 2 |
