Prediction Audit: Zenit Penza vs FK Spartak Tambov Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Zenit Penza

Aug 22, 2026 - 13:00

1 1.17

0 1.43

xG Accuracy: 64%

FK Spartak Tambov

The model missed the final outcome (Zenit Penza win 1–0).

The model had projected FK Spartak Tambov at 41.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 FK Spartak Tambov Zenit Penza ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Zenit Penza	29.2%	9.6%	+19.7 pp	Model Edge
Draw	29.4%	19.1%	+10.2 pp	Model Edge
FK Spartak Tambov	41.4%	71.3%	-29.9 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates FK Spartak Tambov's win probability at 71.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.4%, a difference of 29.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Zenit Penza win 1–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
1X2: model leaned FK Spartak Tambov; match finished Zenit Penza

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on FK Spartak Tambov by 29.9 percentage points (71.3% vs model 41.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 22, 2026 · 13:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Zenit Penza 29.3% · Draw 29.4% · FK Spartak Tambov 41.4%
- xG · Zenit Penza 1.17 — FK Spartak Tambov 1.43
Aug 22, 2026 · 12:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Zenit Penza 9.40 · Draw 4.70 · FK Spartak Tambov 1.26
- Implied 1X2 · Zenit Penza 9.6% · Draw 19.1% · FK Spartak Tambov 71.3%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
Aug 22, 2026 · 13:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Zenit Penza 9.40 · Draw 4.70 · FK Spartak Tambov 1.26
- Implied 1X2 · Zenit Penza 9.6% · Draw 19.1% · FK Spartak Tambov 71.3%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
Aug 22, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Zenit Penza win · 1–0
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 48/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (30 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market strongly disagrees on price
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Betting Confidence 31/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 01:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4221420

Closing Odds 1.26

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Zenit Penza win · Zenit Penza 1–0 FK Spartak Tambov

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Second League - Group 3
Fixture: Zenit Penza vs FK Spartak Tambov
Kickoff: 2026-08-22 13:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 29.3% · Draw 29.4% · Away 41.4%
xG (showing): Zenit Penza 1.17 — FK Spartak Tambov 1.43 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League - Group 3 — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Volna Nizhegorodskaya	22	18	2	2	56
2	FK Spartak Tambov	22	17	2	3	53
3	Shumbrat	22	12	4	6	40
4	Saturn Ramenskoye	22	12	4	6	40
5	Ryazan	21	11	7	3	40
6	Salyut-Belgorod	22	12	3	7	39
7	Metallurg Lipetsk	22	11	5	6	38
8	Avangard Kursk	22	8	6	8	30
9	Rodina Moskva III	22	8	4	10	28
10	Strogino	22	7	4	11	25
11	SKA Khabarovsk II	22	7	3	12	24
12	Zenit Penza	21	7	2	12	23
13	Orel	22	6	5	11	23
14	Rotor-2	22	4	2	16	14
15	Arsenal Tula II	22	2	8	12	14
16	Kvant	22	1	3	18	6

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Volna Nizhegorodskaya	22	47	13	+34	56
2	Metallurg Lipetsk	22	41	27	+14	38
3	Saturn Ramenskoye	22	41	31	+10	40
4	Shumbrat	22	40	29	+11	40
5	Rodina Moskva III	22	38	35	+3	28
6	FK Spartak Tambov	22	37	12	+25	53
7	Salyut-Belgorod	22	37	21	+16	39
8	Ryazan	21	35	13	+22	40
9	SKA Khabarovsk II	22	30	38	-8	24
10	Avangard Kursk	22	28	29	-1	30
11	Strogino	22	26	36	-10	25
12	Orel	22	26	39	-13	23
13	Zenit Penza	21	24	40	-16	23
14	Kvant	22	22	64	-42	6
15	Arsenal Tula II	22	19	44	-25	14
16	Rotor-2	22	15	35	-20	14