Predictions / Football / Bulgaria. Second League / Chernomorets 1919 Burgas vs Ludogorets II

Prediction Audit: Chernomorets 1919 Burgas vs Ludogorets II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Sep 02, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 64%
Ludogorets II Ludogorets II

AI correctly predicted the Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas Chernomorets 1919 Burgas ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Chernomorets 1919 Burgas higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Chernomorets 1919 Burgas -21.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 36.1% 57.2% -21.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 25.3% +4.3 pp Aligned
Ludogorets II 34.2% 17.5% +16.8 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Chernomorets 1919 Burgas's win probability at 57.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 21.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win 1–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Chernomorets 1919 Burgas higher (57.2% vs model 36.1%, 21.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 02, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Ludogorets II 34.2%
    • xG · Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1.32 — Ludogorets II 1.28
  2. Sep 02, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1.57 · Draw 3.55 · Ludogorets II 5.14
    • Implied 1X2 · Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 57.2% · Draw 25.3% · Ludogorets II 17.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 02, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1.57 · Draw 3.55 · Ludogorets II 5.14
    • Implied 1X2 · Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 57.2% · Draw 25.3% · Ludogorets II 17.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 02, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (21 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 27, 2026 · 01:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5620689

Closing Odds 1.57
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Chernomorets 1919 Burgas win · Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1–0 Ludogorets II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Second League
  • Fixture: Chernomorets 1919 Burgas vs Ludogorets II
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-02 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1.32 — Ludogorets II 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League Second League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vihren 11 7 3 1 24
2 CSKA Sofia II 11 7 2 2 23
3 Fratria 11 6 4 1 22
4 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 11 6 3 2 21
5 Beroe 11 5 3 3 18
6 Rilski Sportist 11 5 3 3 18
7 Nesebar 11 5 2 4 17
8 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 11 4 4 3 16
9 Yantra 2019 11 5 1 5 16
10 Hebar 1918 11 4 2 5 14
11 Etar Veliko Tarnovo 10 4 2 4 14
12 Marek 11 4 2 5 14
13 Spartak Pleven 11 4 1 6 13
14 Ludogorets II 10 3 3 4 12
15 Montana 11 3 2 6 11
16 Sportist Svoge 11 2 4 5 10
17 Dobrudzha 11 2 3 6 9
18 Pirin Blagoevgrad 11 0 0 11 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vihren 11 25 11 +14 24
2 Hebar 1918 11 24 19 +5 14
3 CSKA Sofia II 11 23 9 +14 23
4 Nesebar 11 20 17 +3 17
5 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 11 18 8 +10 21
6 Fratria 11 17 8 +9 22
7 Etar Veliko Tarnovo 10 17 19 -2 14
8 Beroe 11 16 12 +4 18
9 Rilski Sportist 11 14 10 +4 18
10 Montana 11 13 23 -10 11
11 Yantra 2019 11 12 11 +1 16
12 Dobrudzha 11 12 18 -6 9
13 Marek 11 11 12 -1 14
14 Spartak Pleven 11 11 22 -11 13
15 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 11 9 10 -1 16
16 Ludogorets II 10 9 10 -1 12
17 Sportist Svoge 11 7 10 -3 10
18 Pirin Blagoevgrad 11 4 33 -29 0