Predictions / Football / Iceland. Úrvalsdeild / IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs Thor Akureyri

Prediction Audit: IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs Thor Akureyri Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

IBV Vestmannaeyjar IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Aug 29, 2026 - 17:00
0 1.35
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 64%
Thor Akureyri Thor Akureyri

The model missed the final outcome (Thor Akureyri win 0–1).

The model had projected IBV Vestmannaeyjar at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 IBV Vestmannaeyjar Thor Akureyri ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices IBV Vestmannaeyjar higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: IBV Vestmannaeyjar -17.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 37.5% 55.4% -17.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 22.3% +7.3 pp Model Higher
Thor Akureyri 32.9% 22.3% +10.6 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates IBV Vestmannaeyjar's win probability at 55.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 17.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Thor Akureyri win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about IBV Vestmannaeyjar than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned IBV Vestmannaeyjar; match finished Thor Akureyri

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on IBV Vestmannaeyjar by 17.8 percentage points (55.3% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 29, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · IBV Vestmannaeyjar 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Thor Akureyri 32.9%
    • xG · IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1.35 — Thor Akureyri 1.25
  2. Aug 29, 2026 · 16:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1.71 · Draw 4.24 · Thor Akureyri 4.25
    • Implied 1X2 · IBV Vestmannaeyjar 55.4% · Draw 22.3% · Thor Akureyri 22.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 29, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1.71 · Draw 4.24 · Thor Akureyri 4.25
    • Implied 1X2 · IBV Vestmannaeyjar 55.4% · Draw 22.3% · Thor Akureyri 22.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 29, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Thor Akureyri win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (18 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 10/100
Betting Confidence 43/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 04:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5157583

Closing Odds 1.71
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Thor Akureyri win · IBV Vestmannaeyjar 0–1 Thor Akureyri
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Úrvalsdeild
  • Fixture: IBV Vestmannaeyjar vs Thor Akureyri
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-29 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1.35 — Thor Akureyri 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Úrvalsdeild Úrvalsdeild — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 22 16 5 1 53
2 Fram Reykjavik 22 13 6 3 45
3 KR Reykjavik 22 13 5 4 44
4 Breidablik 22 8 6 8 30
5 IA Akranes 22 8 6 8 30
6 Keflavik 22 8 4 10 28
7 Stjarnan 22 8 4 10 28
8 Valur Reykjavik 22 8 3 11 27
9 FH hafnarfjordur 22 4 9 9 21
10 Thor Akureyri 22 6 3 13 21
11 KA Akureyri 22 5 5 12 20
12 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 22 4 6 12 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 KR Reykjavik 22 74 49 +25 44
2 Vikingur Reykjavik 22 67 21 +46 53
3 Fram Reykjavik 22 56 42 +14 45
4 Breidablik 22 43 41 +2 30
5 Stjarnan 22 42 50 -8 28
6 IA Akranes 22 39 41 -2 30
7 Valur Reykjavik 22 39 45 -6 27
8 KA Akureyri 22 35 48 -13 20
9 Keflavik 22 33 38 -5 28
10 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 22 32 45 -13 18
11 FH hafnarfjordur 22 27 39 -12 21
12 Thor Akureyri 22 22 50 -28 21