Predictions / Football / Faroe-Islands. 1. Deild / ÍF II vs B36 II

Prediction Audit: ÍF II vs B36 II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

ÍF II ÍF II
Aug 22, 2026 - 14:00
9 1.33
3 1.27
xG Accuracy: 8%
B36 II B36 II

AI correctly predicted the ÍF II win.

The match finished 9–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (12 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 ÍF II ÍF II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 9-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices ÍF II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: ÍF II -13.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
ÍF II 36.6% 49.6% -13.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 23.5% +6.1 pp Model Higher
B36 II 33.8% 26.9% +6.9 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates ÍF II's win probability at 49.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 13.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (ÍF II win 9–3).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about ÍF II than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 12 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (12 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced ÍF II higher (49.7% vs model 36.6%, 13.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (ÍF II win 9–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 22, 2026 · 13:52 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · ÍF II 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · B36 II 33.8%
    • xG · ÍF II 1.33 — B36 II 1.27
  2. Aug 22, 2026 · 13:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · ÍF II 1.79 · Draw 3.78 · B36 II 3.31
    • Implied 1X2 · ÍF II 49.6% · Draw 23.5% · B36 II 26.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 22, 2026 · 13:52 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
    • 1X2 odds · ÍF II 1.79 · Draw 3.78 · B36 II 3.31
    • Implied 1X2 · ÍF II 49.6% · Draw 23.5% · B36 II 26.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 22, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result ÍF II win · 9–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 34/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 01:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4221149

Closing Odds 1.79
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result ÍF II win · ÍF II 9–3 B36 II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 1. Deild
  • Fixture: ÍF II vs B36 II
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-22 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): ÍF II 1.33 — B36 II 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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1. Deild 1. Deild — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 B71 24 19 2 3 59
2 Víkingur II 24 17 3 4 54
3 Suduroy 24 16 2 6 50
4 ÍF II 24 10 7 7 37
5 TB 24 8 7 9 31
6 B36 II 24 9 2 13 29
7 NSÍ II 24 7 4 13 25
8 Hoyvík 24 7 2 15 23
9 HB II 24 5 7 12 22
10 EB / Streymur II 24 3 2 19 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 B71 24 76 25 +51 59
2 Suduroy 24 73 33 +40 50
3 Víkingur II 24 61 39 +22 54
4 ÍF II 24 55 48 +7 37
5 B36 II 24 51 62 -11 29
6 TB 24 46 51 -5 31
7 Hoyvík 24 36 67 -31 23
8 NSÍ II 24 34 55 -21 25
9 HB II 24 30 41 -11 22
10 EB / Streymur II 24 30 71 -41 11