Predictions / Football / Paraguay. Division Intermedia / SOL DE America vs Resistencia

Prediction Audit: SOL DE America vs Resistencia Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

SOL DE America SOL DE America
Aug 21, 2026 - 21:30
0 1.43
0 1.17
xG Accuracy: 49%
Resistencia Resistencia

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected SOL DE America at 41.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 SOL DE America Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned SOL DE America; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 0–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 21, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · SOL DE America 1.43 — Resistencia 1.17
  2. Aug 21, 2026 · 21:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 18, 2026 · 01:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4452073

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · SOL DE America 0–0 Resistencia
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Division Intermedia
  • Fixture: SOL DE America vs Resistencia
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-21 21:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.3%
  • xG (showing): SOL DE America 1.43 — Resistencia 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

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Division Intermedia Division Intermedia — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Deportivo Santani 27 17 3 7 54
2 General Caballero 27 16 5 6 53
3 12 de Junio VH 27 14 8 5 50
4 Benjamín Aceval 27 12 6 9 42
5 SOL DE America 27 9 14 4 41
6 Independiente F.b.c. 27 10 10 7 40
7 Sportivo Carapeguá 27 11 6 10 39
8 Paraguari AC 27 11 5 11 38
9 Atlético Tembetary 27 10 6 11 36
10 Resistencia 27 9 8 10 35
11 Fernando De La Mora 27 9 7 11 34
12 Deportivo Capiata 27 6 11 10 29
13 3 de Noviembre 27 6 8 13 26
14 Guairena FC 27 6 7 14 25
15 Tacuary 27 4 12 11 24
16 Encarnación 27 6 4 17 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 General Caballero 27 54 33 +21 53
2 Deportivo Santani 27 46 25 +21 54
3 Benjamín Aceval 27 42 35 +7 42
4 Independiente F.b.c. 27 40 35 +5 40
5 Atlético Tembetary 27 39 42 -3 36
6 12 de Junio VH 27 36 27 +9 50
7 Paraguari AC 27 36 35 +1 38
8 SOL DE America 27 33 25 +8 41
9 3 de Noviembre 27 33 40 -7 26
10 Sportivo Carapeguá 27 32 39 -7 39
11 Resistencia 27 31 32 -1 35
12 Deportivo Capiata 27 31 37 -6 29
13 Fernando De La Mora 27 30 37 -7 34
14 Tacuary 27 30 43 -13 24
15 Encarnación 27 25 39 -14 22
16 Guairena FC 27 22 36 -14 25
Division Intermedia Paraguay. Division Intermedia Predictions