Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 3. liga - MSFL / Hranice vs Havířov

Prediction Audit: Hranice vs Havířov Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Hranice Hranice
Aug 21, 2026 - 17:00
6 1.26
0 1.34
xG Accuracy: 19%
Havířov Havířov

The model missed the final outcome (Hranice win 6–0).

The model had projected Havířov at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Havířov Hranice ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 6-0 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)

Market lesson

The full-time result was Hranice win 6–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 21, 2026 · 17:02 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Hranice 1.26 — Havířov 1.34
  2. Aug 21, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Hranice win · 6–0
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 15, 2026 · 01:41 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4029240

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Hranice win · Hranice 6–0 Havířov
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 3. liga - MSFL
  • Fixture: Hranice vs Havířov
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-21 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): Hranice 1.26 — Havířov 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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See Upcoming 3. liga - MSFL Matches Track Hranice Next Match Prediction Track Havířov Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

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3. liga - MSFL 3. liga - MSFL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Líšeň II 11 7 4 0 25
2 Zbrojovka Brno II 11 7 2 2 23
3 Uničov 11 7 2 2 23
4 Frýdek-Místek 11 6 3 2 21
5 Sigma Olomouc II 11 6 1 4 19
6 Hranice 11 5 2 4 17
7 Vítkovice 11 4 4 3 16
8 Unie Hlubina 11 4 3 4 15
9 Slovácko II 11 4 3 4 15
10 Uherský Brod 11 4 3 4 15
11 Zlín II 11 4 3 4 15
12 Hodonín 11 4 2 5 14
13 Vrchovina 11 4 2 5 14
14 Karviná II 11 3 2 6 11
15 Vsetín 11 3 1 7 10
16 Blansko 11 1 5 5 8
17 Polanka nad Odrou 11 1 3 7 6
18 Havířov 11 0 5 6 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Unie Hlubina 11 26 22 +4 15
2 Zbrojovka Brno II 11 24 16 +8 23
3 Uničov 11 22 14 +8 23
4 Líšeň II 11 20 4 +16 25
5 Sigma Olomouc II 11 20 13 +7 19
6 Frýdek-Místek 11 19 10 +9 21
7 Uherský Brod 11 18 18 0 15
8 Slovácko II 11 16 12 +4 15
9 Blansko 11 16 28 -12 8
10 Hranice 11 15 10 +5 17
11 Karviná II 11 15 21 -6 11
12 Hodonín 11 14 13 +1 14
13 Zlín II 11 13 16 -3 15
14 Vrchovina 11 13 20 -7 14
15 Vítkovice 11 12 9 +3 16
16 Vsetín 11 11 24 -13 10
17 Polanka nad Odrou 11 7 17 -10 6
18 Havířov 11 6 20 -14 5
3. liga - MSFL Czech-Republic. 3. liga - MSFL Predictions