AI correctly predicted the Sparta Praha W win.
The match finished 0–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Sparta Praha W Sparta Praha W ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 0-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovácko W | 26.2% | 7.5% | +18.7 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 28.9% | 12.9% | +16.0 pp | Model Edge |
| Sparta Praha W | 44.8% | 79.5% | -34.7 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Sparta Praha W's win probability at 79.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 44.8%, a difference of 34.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Sparta Praha W win 0–3).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Sparta Praha W attacking xG significantly stronger (1.50 vs 1.10)
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Sparta Praha W higher (79.5% vs model 44.8%, 34.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Sparta Praha W win 0–3).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 10:44 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Slovácko W 26.2% · Draw 29.0% · Sparta Praha W 44.8%
- xG · Slovácko W 1.10 — Sparta Praha W 1.50
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 10:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Slovácko W 12.00 · Draw 7.00 · Sparta Praha W 1.14
- Implied 1X2 · Slovácko W 7.5% · Draw 12.9% · Sparta Praha W 79.5%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 10:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Slovácko W 12.00 · Draw 7.00 · Sparta Praha W 1.14
- Implied 1X2 · Slovácko W 7.5% · Draw 12.9% · Sparta Praha W 79.5%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Aug 29, 2026 · 10:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Sparta Praha W win · 0–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (35 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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1. Liga Women — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slavia Praha W | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
| 2 | Sparta Praha W | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 |
| 3 | Slovan Liberec W | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Prague Raptors W | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Viktoria Plzeň W | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Baník Ostrava W | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 7 | Slovácko W | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 8 | Horní Heršpice W | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slavia Praha W | 7 | 40 | 1 | +39 | 21 |
| 2 | Sparta Praha W | 7 | 23 | 6 | +17 | 15 |
| 3 | Slovan Liberec W | 6 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 12 |
| 4 | Baník Ostrava W | 7 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 4 |
| 5 | Prague Raptors W | 6 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 12 |
| 6 | Viktoria Plzeň W | 6 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 9 |
| 7 | Slovácko W | 6 | 2 | 19 | -17 | 4 |
| 8 | Horní Heršpice W | 7 | 0 | 25 | -25 | 0 |
