Prediction Audit: CSKA Sofia II vs Spartak Pleven Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

CSKA Sofia II

Sep 03, 2026 - 14:00

5 1.41

1 1.19

xG Accuracy: 35%

Spartak Pleven

AI correctly predicted the CSKA Sofia II win.

The match finished 5–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 CSKA Sofia II CSKA Sofia II ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 5-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
CSKA Sofia II	40.4%	61.9%	-21.5 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.4%	22.5%	+7.0 pp	Model Higher
Spartak Pleven	30.1%	15.6%	+14.5 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates CSKA Sofia II's win probability at 61.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.4%, a difference of 21.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (CSKA Sofia II win 5–1).

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced CSKA Sofia II higher (61.9% vs model 40.4%, 21.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (CSKA Sofia II win 5–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 03, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · CSKA Sofia II 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Spartak Pleven 30.1%
- xG · CSKA Sofia II 1.41 — Spartak Pleven 1.19
Sep 03, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · CSKA Sofia II 1.45 · Draw 3.99 · Spartak Pleven 5.75
- Implied 1X2 · CSKA Sofia II 61.9% · Draw 22.5% · Spartak Pleven 15.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 03, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · CSKA Sofia II 1.45 · Draw 3.99 · Spartak Pleven 5.75
- Implied 1X2 · CSKA Sofia II 61.9% · Draw 22.5% · Spartak Pleven 15.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 03, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result CSKA Sofia II win · 5–1
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (21 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 28, 2026 · 01:41 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5732434

Closing Odds 1.45

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result CSKA Sofia II win · CSKA Sofia II 5–1 Spartak Pleven

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Second League
Fixture: CSKA Sofia II vs Spartak Pleven
Kickoff: 2026-09-03 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
xG (showing): CSKA Sofia II 1.41 — Spartak Pleven 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Second League — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Vihren	11	7	3	1	24
2	CSKA Sofia II	11	7	2	2	23
3	Fratria	11	6	4	1	22
4	Chernomorets 1919 Burgas	11	6	3	2	21
5	Beroe	11	5	3	3	18
6	Rilski Sportist	11	5	3	3	18
7	Nesebar	11	5	2	4	17
8	Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa	11	4	4	3	16
9	Yantra 2019	11	5	1	5	16
10	Hebar 1918	11	4	2	5	14
11	Etar Veliko Tarnovo	10	4	2	4	14
12	Marek	11	4	2	5	14
13	Spartak Pleven	11	4	1	6	13
14	Ludogorets II	10	3	3	4	12
15	Montana	11	3	2	6	11
16	Sportist Svoge	11	2	4	5	10
17	Dobrudzha	11	2	3	6	9
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	11	0	0	11	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Vihren	11	25	11	+14	24
2	Hebar 1918	11	24	19	+5	14
3	CSKA Sofia II	11	23	9	+14	23
4	Nesebar	11	20	17	+3	17
5	Chernomorets 1919 Burgas	11	18	8	+10	21
6	Fratria	11	17	8	+9	22
7	Etar Veliko Tarnovo	10	17	19	-2	14
8	Beroe	11	16	12	+4	18
9	Rilski Sportist	11	14	10	+4	18
10	Montana	11	13	23	-10	11
11	Yantra 2019	11	12	11	+1	16
12	Dobrudzha	11	12	18	-6	9
13	Marek	11	11	12	-1	14
14	Spartak Pleven	11	11	22	-11	13
15	Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa	11	9	10	-1	16
16	Ludogorets II	10	9	10	-1	12
17	Sportist Svoge	11	7	10	-3	10
18	Pirin Blagoevgrad	11	4	33	-29	0