The model missed the final outcome (Arsenal Česká Lípa win 0–1).
The model had projected Baník Ostrava II at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Baník Ostrava II Arsenal Česká Lípa ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baník Ostrava II | 38.5% | 58.2% | -19.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 19.9% | +9.7 pp | Model Higher |
| Arsenal Česká Lípa | 31.9% | 21.9% | +10.0 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Baník Ostrava II's win probability at 58.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 19.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Arsenal Česká Lípa win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Baník Ostrava II than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Baník Ostrava II; match finished Arsenal Česká Lípa
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Baník Ostrava II by 19.7 percentage points (58.2% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Baník Ostrava II 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Arsenal Česká Lípa 31.9%
- xG · Baník Ostrava II 1.37 — Arsenal Česká Lípa 1.23
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 12:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Baník Ostrava II 1.57 · Draw 4.59 · Arsenal Česká Lípa 4.16
- Implied 1X2 · Baník Ostrava II 58.2% · Draw 19.9% · Arsenal Česká Lípa 21.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Baník Ostrava II 1.57 · Draw 4.59 · Arsenal Česká Lípa 4.16
- Implied 1X2 · Baník Ostrava II 58.2% · Draw 19.9% · Arsenal Česká Lípa 21.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 23, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Arsenal Česká Lípa win · 0–1
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FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (20 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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