The model missed the final outcome (Draw 3–3).
The model had projected Spartans at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Spartans Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spartans | 39.0% | 45.3% | -6.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 28.2% | +1.4 pp | Aligned |
| Elgin City | 31.5% | 26.5% | +5.0 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Spartans's win probability at 45.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 6.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.
After full time, the result was Draw 3–3.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Spartans. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Spartans; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Spartans by 6.3 percentage points (45.3% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 13:57 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Spartans 39.0% · Draw 29.5% · Elgin City 31.5%
- xG · Spartans 1.38 — Elgin City 1.22
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 13:36 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Spartans 2.02 · Draw 3.25 · Elgin City 3.45
- Implied 1X2 · Spartans 45.3% · Draw 28.2% · Elgin City 26.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 13:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Spartans 2.02 · Draw 3.25 · Elgin City 3.45
- Implied 1X2 · Spartans 45.3% · Draw 28.2% · Elgin City 26.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 3–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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League Two — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clyde | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 2 | Stranraer | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 3 | Spartans | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Elgin City | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | Forfar Athletic | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Edinburgh City | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Annan Athletic | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 8 | Dumbarton | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 9 | Kelty Hearts | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 10 | Stirling Albion | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clyde | 8 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 17 |
| 2 | Elgin City | 8 | 19 | 14 | +5 | 11 |
| 3 | Spartans | 8 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 12 |
| 4 | Edinburgh City | 8 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 9 |
| 5 | Stranraer | 8 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 16 |
| 6 | Kelty Hearts | 8 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 9 |
| 7 | Stirling Albion | 8 | 10 | 22 | -12 | 5 |
| 8 | Annan Athletic | 8 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 9 |
| 9 | Forfar Athletic | 8 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 11 |
| 10 | Dumbarton | 8 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 9 |
