Prediction Audit: Vänersborgs FK vs IFK Skövde Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Vänersborgs FK

Aug 21, 2026 - 17:15

0 1.15

1 1.45

xG Accuracy: 64%

IFK Skövde

AI correctly predicted the IFK Skövde win.

The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 IFK Skövde IFK Skövde ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (IFK Skövde win 0–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 21, 2026 · 17:14 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Vänersborgs FK 1.15 — IFK Skövde 1.45
Aug 21, 2026 · 17:15 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result IFK Skövde win · 0–1
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Pending

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation pending

Market Compatibility 100/100

Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 15, 2026 · 01:47 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4030805

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result IFK Skövde win · Vänersborgs FK 0–1 IFK Skövde

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Division 2 - Norra Götaland
Fixture: Vänersborgs FK vs IFK Skövde
Kickoff: 2026-08-21 17:15:00
1X2 (model): Home 28.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 42.4%
xG (showing): Vänersborgs FK 1.15 — IFK Skövde 1.45 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Norra Götaland — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Husqvarna	24	20	3	1	63
2	Skara	25	17	5	3	56
3	IFK Skövde	25	14	5	6	47
4	Ahlafors	24	12	7	5	43
5	Grebbestad	24	12	3	9	39
6	Herrestads	24	10	7	7	37
7	Stenungsund	24	9	6	9	33
8	Vänersborgs FK	25	8	5	12	29
9	Lidköping	24	7	6	11	27
10	Motala	24	6	8	10	26
11	Kumla	25	6	8	11	26
12	Tord	24	4	9	11	21
13	IF Karlstad II	24	2	7	15	13
14	Vänersborgs IF	24	2	3	19	9

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Husqvarna	24	58	18	+40	63
2	Ahlafors	24	55	28	+27	43
3	Skara	25	52	26	+26	56
4	Herrestads	24	44	43	+1	37
5	Stenungsund	24	43	33	+10	33
6	Grebbestad	24	43	36	+7	39
7	IFK Skövde	25	42	26	+16	47
8	Motala	24	35	38	-3	26
9	Vänersborgs FK	25	33	43	-10	29
10	Lidköping	24	29	42	-13	27
11	Tord	24	29	43	-14	21
12	Kumla	25	26	45	-19	26
13	IF Karlstad II	24	24	47	-23	13
14	Vänersborgs IF	24	24	69	-45	9