Predictions / Football / Poland. II Liga - East / Legia Warszawa II vs Sokół Kleczew

Prediction Audit: Legia Warszawa II vs Sokół Kleczew Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Legia Warszawa II Legia Warszawa II
Aug 23, 2026 - 10:00
6 1.45
1 1.15
xG Accuracy: 28%
Sokół Kleczew Sokół Kleczew

AI correctly predicted the Legia Warszawa II win.

The match finished 6–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Legia Warszawa II Legia Warszawa II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 6-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Legia Warszawa II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Legia Warszawa II -11.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Legia Warszawa II 42.4% 53.5% -11.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.3% 23.2% +6.0 pp Model Higher
Sokół Kleczew 28.4% 23.2% +5.1 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Legia Warszawa II's win probability at 53.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.4%, a difference of 11.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Legia Warszawa II win 6–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Legia Warszawa II than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Legia Warszawa II higher (53.6% vs model 42.4%, 11.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Legia Warszawa II win 6–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 23, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Legia Warszawa II 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Sokół Kleczew 28.4%
    • xG · Legia Warszawa II 1.45 — Sokół Kleczew 1.15
  2. Aug 23, 2026 · 09:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Legia Warszawa II 1.71 · Draw 3.94 · Sokół Kleczew 3.94
    • Implied 1X2 · Legia Warszawa II 53.5% · Draw 23.2% · Sokół Kleczew 23.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 23, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Legia Warszawa II 1.71 · Draw 3.94 · Sokół Kleczew 3.94
    • Implied 1X2 · Legia Warszawa II 53.5% · Draw 23.2% · Sokół Kleczew 23.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 23, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Legia Warszawa II win · 6–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 44/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 17, 2026 · 00:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4359043

Closing Odds 1.71
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Legia Warszawa II win · Legia Warszawa II 6–1 Sokół Kleczew
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: II Liga - East
  • Fixture: Legia Warszawa II vs Sokół Kleczew
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-23 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 28.4%
  • xG (showing): Legia Warszawa II 1.45 — Sokół Kleczew 1.15 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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II Liga - East II Liga - East — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Znicz Pruszków 9 6 2 1 20
2 Górnik Łęczna 9 5 2 2 17
3 Tychy 71 9 4 5 0 17
4 Zawisza Bydgoszcz 9 4 4 1 16
5 Rekord Bielsko-Biała 9 5 1 3 16
6 Hutnik Kraków 9 4 3 2 15
7 Sandecja Nowy Sącz 9 4 3 2 15
8 Chojniczanka Chojnice 9 4 2 3 14
9 Podhale Nowy Targ 9 4 2 3 14
10 Lechia Zielona Góra 9 3 3 3 12
11 Olimpia Grudziądz 9 3 3 3 12
12 Stal Stalowa Wola 9 3 1 5 10
13 Avia Świdnik 9 3 1 5 10
14 Legia Warszawa II 9 3 0 6 9
15 Śląsk Wrocław II 9 3 0 6 9
16 Sokół Kleczew 9 1 5 3 8
17 Świt Skolwin 9 1 2 6 5
18 Resovia Rzeszów 9 0 3 6 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Znicz Pruszków 9 19 10 +9 20
2 Górnik Łęczna 9 18 9 +9 17
3 Podhale Nowy Targ 9 18 17 +1 14
4 Legia Warszawa II 9 18 17 +1 9
5 Lechia Zielona Góra 9 17 15 +2 12
6 Zawisza Bydgoszcz 9 16 11 +5 16
7 Hutnik Kraków 9 16 11 +5 15
8 Chojniczanka Chojnice 9 16 14 +2 14
9 Śląsk Wrocław II 9 15 17 -2 9
10 Rekord Bielsko-Biała 9 14 9 +5 16
11 Stal Stalowa Wola 9 14 17 -3 10
12 Sandecja Nowy Sącz 9 13 8 +5 15
13 Tychy 71 9 12 6 +6 17
14 Avia Świdnik 9 12 16 -4 10
15 Olimpia Grudziądz 9 11 15 -4 12
16 Sokół Kleczew 9 10 21 -11 8
17 Świt Skolwin 9 9 23 -14 5
18 Resovia Rzeszów 9 6 18 -12 3
II Liga - East Poland. II Liga - East Predictions