The model missed the final outcome (Cardiff City U21 win 2–5).
The model had projected Wigan Athletic U21 at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Wigan Athletic U21 Cardiff City U21 ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-5 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wigan Athletic U21 | 37.5% | 46.8% | -9.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 20.6% | +9.0 pp | Model Higher |
| Cardiff City U21 | 32.9% | 32.6% | +0.2 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Wigan Athletic U21's win probability at 46.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 9.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Cardiff City U21 win 2–5.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Wigan Athletic U21. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Wigan Athletic U21; match finished Cardiff City U21
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Wigan Athletic U21 by 9.2 percentage points (46.7% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 25, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Wigan Athletic U21 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Cardiff City U21 32.9%
- xG · Wigan Athletic U21 1.35 — Cardiff City U21 1.25
-
Aug 25, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Wigan Athletic U21 2.07 · Draw 4.42 · Cardiff City U21 2.62
- Implied 1X2 · Wigan Athletic U21 44.3% · Draw 20.7% · Cardiff City U21 35.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 25, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Wigan Athletic U21 1.96 · Draw 4.44 · Cardiff City U21 2.81
- Implied 1X2 · Wigan Athletic U21 46.8% · Draw 20.6% · Cardiff City U21 32.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 25, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Cardiff City U21 win · 2–5
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Professional Development League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolton Wanderers Res. | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Bristol City U21 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | Swansea City U21 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | Fleetwood Town U21 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Cardiff City U21 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 6 | Sheffield United U21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Barnsley U21 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Peterborough United U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Sheffield Wednesday U21 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 10 | Huddersfield Town U21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 11 | Charlton Athletic U21 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 12 | Wigan Athletic U21 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 13 | Colchester United U21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry City U21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 15 | Queens Park Rangers U21 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 16 | Hull City U21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 17 | Millwall U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolton Wanderers Res. | 5 | 17 | 2 | +15 | 15 |
| 2 | Wigan Athletic U21 | 6 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 6 |
| 3 | Cardiff City U21 | 5 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 8 |
| 4 | Bristol City U21 | 5 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 9 |
| 5 | Colchester United U21 | 5 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 6 |
| 6 | Swansea City U21 | 6 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 9 |
| 7 | Barnsley U21 | 5 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 7 |
| 8 | Queens Park Rangers U21 | 6 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 4 |
| 9 | Charlton Athletic U21 | 5 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 6 |
| 10 | Coventry City U21 | 4 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Sheffield Wednesday U21 | 5 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 6 |
| 12 | Peterborough United U21 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Huddersfield Town U21 | 3 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 6 |
| 14 | Sheffield United U21 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 15 | Fleetwood Town U21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 16 | Hull City U21 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 1 |
| 17 | Millwall U21 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 |
