Predictions / Football / Peru. Primera División / Juan Pablo II College vs ADT

Prediction Audit: Juan Pablo II College vs ADT Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Juan Pablo II College Juan Pablo II College
Aug 22, 2026 - 20:30
5 1.08
1 1.10
xG Accuracy: 33%
ADT ADT

The model missed the final outcome (Juan Pablo II College win 5–1).

The model had projected ADT at 34.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 ADT Juan Pablo II College ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 5-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Juan Pablo II College higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Juan Pablo II College -18.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Juan Pablo II College 33.1% 51.3% -18.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 32.8% 27.0% +5.8 pp Model Higher
ADT 34.1% 21.7% +12.4 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Juan Pablo II College's win probability at 51.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.1%, a difference of 18.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Juan Pablo II College win 5–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Juan Pablo II College than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on ADT by 18.2 percentage points (52.3% vs model 34.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 22, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Juan Pablo II College 33.1% · Draw 32.8% · ADT 34.1%
    • xG · Juan Pablo II College 1.08 — ADT 1.10
  2. Aug 22, 2026 · 20:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Juan Pablo II College 2.00 · Draw 3.24 · ADT 3.71
    • Implied 1X2 · Juan Pablo II College 46.4% · Draw 28.6% · ADT 25.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 22, 2026 · 20:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Juan Pablo II College 1.81 · Draw 3.44 · ADT 4.29
    • Implied 1X2 · Juan Pablo II College 51.3% · Draw 27.0% · ADT 21.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 22, 2026 · 20:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Juan Pablo II College win · 5–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (18 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 2/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 03:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4243206

Closing Odds 1.81
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Juan Pablo II College win · Juan Pablo II College 5–1 ADT
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Primera División
  • Fixture: Juan Pablo II College vs ADT
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-22 20:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.1% · Draw 32.8% · Away 34.1%
  • xG (showing): Juan Pablo II College 1.08 — ADT 1.1 (total xG ≈ 2.18)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.6%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 62.8% · Over 2.5 37.2%); BTTS No (Yes 45.8% · No 54.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 45.8% · No 54.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 22, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División Primera División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Alianza Lima 27 16 8 3 56
2 Universitario 26 14 7 5 49
3 FBC Melgar 26 13 6 7 45
4 Deportivo Garcilaso 26 13 6 7 45
5 Cusco 27 14 3 10 45
6 Cultural Santa Rosa 26 12 5 9 41
7 Cienciano 25 12 4 9 40
8 Alianza Atletico 27 11 7 9 40
9 Sporting Cristal 27 11 5 11 38
10 Sport Boys 26 10 7 9 37
11 Atletico Grau 27 9 5 13 32
12 Sport Huancayo 26 9 5 12 32
13 Juan Pablo II College 26 8 7 11 31
14 Comerciantes Unidos 27 7 9 11 30
15 FC Cajamarca 27 7 6 14 27
16 UCV Moquegua 26 6 7 13 25
17 ADT 26 5 7 14 22
18 UTC 26 4 8 14 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sporting Cristal 27 48 40 +8 38
2 Alianza Lima 27 44 18 +26 56
3 FBC Melgar 26 44 28 +16 45
4 Cienciano 25 44 37 +7 40
5 Universitario 26 43 27 +16 49
6 FC Cajamarca 27 41 52 -11 27
7 Alianza Atletico 27 40 35 +5 40
8 Cusco 27 40 38 +2 45
9 Juan Pablo II College 26 38 52 -14 31
10 Deportivo Garcilaso 26 35 24 +11 45
11 Comerciantes Unidos 27 35 38 -3 30
12 Cultural Santa Rosa 26 35 44 -9 41
13 Sport Huancayo 26 34 42 -8 32
14 UTC 26 30 47 -17 15
15 Sport Boys 26 28 25 +3 37
16 ADT 26 27 41 -14 22
17 Atletico Grau 27 26 31 -5 32
18 UCV Moquegua 26 24 37 -13 25
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Alianza Lima 27 2.3 0.0 +2.3 56
2 Deportivo Garcilaso 26 2.3 1.4 +0.9 45
3 Cusco 27 1.4 2.3 -0.9 45
4 UTC 26 0.0 2.3 -2.3 15
5 Universitario 26 — — — 49
6 FBC Melgar 26 — — — 45
7 Cultural Santa Rosa 26 — — — 41
8 Cienciano 25 — — — 40
9 Alianza Atletico 27 — — — 40
10 Sporting Cristal 27 — — — 38
11 Sport Boys 26 — — — 37
12 Atletico Grau 27 — — — 32
13 Sport Huancayo 26 — — — 32
14 Juan Pablo II College 26 — — — 31
15 Comerciantes Unidos 27 — — — 30
16 FC Cajamarca 27 — — — 27
17 UCV Moquegua 26 — — — 25
18 ADT 26 — — — 22
Primera División Peru. Primera División Predictions