Predictions / Football / Venezuela. Primera División / Zamora FC vs UCV

Prediction Audit: Zamora FC vs UCV Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Zamora FC Zamora FC
Aug 22, 2026 - 20:00
2 1.20
0 1.40
xG Accuracy: 55%
UCV UCV

The model missed the final outcome (Zamora FC win 2–0).

The model had projected UCV at 39.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 UCV Zamora FC ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: UCV -1.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Zamora FC 30.6% 30.6% +0.0 pp Aligned
Draw 29.5% 28.2% +1.3 pp Aligned
UCV 39.9% 41.2% -1.3 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Zamora FC win 2–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned UCV; match finished Zamora FC

Market lesson

The full-time result was Zamora FC win 2–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 22, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Zamora FC 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · UCV 40.0%
    • xG · Zamora FC 1.20 — UCV 1.40
  2. Aug 22, 2026 · 19:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Zamora FC 2.98 · Draw 3.23 · UCV 2.21
    • Implied 1X2 · Zamora FC 30.6% · Draw 28.2% · UCV 41.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 22, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Zamora FC 2.98 · Draw 3.23 · UCV 2.21
    • Implied 1X2 · Zamora FC 30.6% · Draw 28.2% · UCV 41.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 22, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Zamora FC win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 93/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 19, 2026 · 01:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4546844

Closing Odds 2.21
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Zamora FC win · Zamora FC 2–0 UCV
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primera División
  • Fixture: Zamora FC vs UCV
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-22 20:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Away 40.0%
  • xG (showing): Zamora FC 1.2 — UCV 1.4 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera División Primera División — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Metropolitanos FC 24 16 5 3 53
2 Deportivo Tachira FC 24 14 5 5 47
3 Real Esppor Club 24 12 7 5 43
4 UCV 24 11 5 8 38
5 Carabobo FC 24 9 10 5 37
6 Portuguesa FC 24 9 10 5 37
7 Puerto Cabello 24 9 9 6 36
8 Estudiantes de Merida FC 24 10 6 8 36
9 Caracas FC 24 5 11 8 26
10 Monagas SC 24 7 4 13 25
11 Zamora FC 24 6 7 11 25
12 Rayo Zuliano 24 7 4 13 25
13 Trujillanos FC 24 3 6 15 15
14 Academia Anzoátegui 24 3 5 16 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Metropolitanos FC 24 41 19 +22 53
2 Deportivo Tachira FC 24 41 26 +15 47
3 Real Esppor Club 24 36 22 +14 43
4 UCV 24 36 31 +5 38
5 Carabobo FC 24 35 22 +13 37
6 Portuguesa FC 24 34 24 +10 37
7 Estudiantes de Merida FC 24 33 30 +3 36
8 Puerto Cabello 24 31 23 +8 36
9 Rayo Zuliano 24 30 46 -16 25
10 Monagas SC 24 26 35 -9 25
11 Caracas FC 24 24 31 -7 26
12 Zamora FC 24 24 35 -11 25
13 Trujillanos FC 24 21 44 -23 15
14 Academia Anzoátegui 24 21 45 -24 14