AI correctly predicted the Arsenal win.
The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Arsenal Arsenal ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Arsenal win 3–0).
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 21, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Arsenal 1.33 — Coventry 1.11
-
Aug 21, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Arsenal win · 3–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Arsenal win · Arsenal 3–0 Coventry
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Premier League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | Brighton | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | Brentford | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 5 | Leeds | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 | Everton | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 11 | Ipswich | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | Manchester United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 13 | Nottingham Forest | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 18 | Coventry | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 19 | Fulham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 20 | Tottenham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brighton | 5 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 10 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 5 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 15 |
| 3 | Brentford | 5 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 9 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 5 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 |
| 5 | Newcastle | 5 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 8 |
| 6 | Arsenal | 5 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 12 |
| 7 | Manchester United | 5 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | Leeds | 5 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 5 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 5 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 6 |
| 11 | Everton | 5 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 9 |
| 12 | Hull City | 5 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 5 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 5 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Fulham | 5 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2 |
| 17 | Nottingham Forest | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 18 | Aston Villa | 5 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 5 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 2 |
| 20 | Coventry | 5 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 3 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 5 | 4.9 | 1.0 | +3.9 | 12 |
| 2 | Brentford | 5 | 5.5 | 1.9 | +3.6 | 9 |
| 3 | Manchester United | 5 | 7.1 | 4.3 | +2.8 | 5 |
| 4 | Manchester City | 5 | 3.8 | 1.2 | +2.6 | 15 |
| 5 | Brighton | 5 | 5.2 | 3.3 | +1.9 | 10 |
| 6 | Nottingham Forest | 5 | 3.0 | 2.1 | +0.9 | 5 |
| 7 | Chelsea | 5 | 5.1 | 5.0 | +0.1 | 7 |
| 8 | Liverpool | 5 | 3.8 | 3.7 | +0.1 | 9 |
| 9 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 4 |
| 10 | Sunderland | 5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 4 |
| 11 | Leeds | 5 | 1.9 | 2.2 | -0.3 | 9 |
| 12 | Coventry | 5 | 1.6 | 2.5 | -0.9 | 3 |
| 13 | Everton | 5 | 3.9 | 4.9 | -1.0 | 9 |
| 14 | Newcastle | 5 | 2.2 | 3.3 | -1.1 | 8 |
| 15 | Hull City | 5 | 2.0 | 3.1 | -1.1 | 8 |
| 16 | Bournemouth | 5 | 2.8 | 4.1 | -1.3 | 3 |
| 17 | Fulham | 5 | 2.1 | 3.5 | -1.4 | 2 |
| 18 | Ipswich | 5 | 3.8 | 5.3 | -1.5 | 6 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 5 | 1.5 | 4.7 | -3.2 | 2 |
| 20 | Aston Villa | 5 | 0.6 | 4.7 | -4.1 | 4 |
